Ramesh Reddy, 44, put everything he had into his 3.5 acres of tomato farm in June. The farmer from Kolar district in southern Karnataka state invested 320,000 rupees (€3,000, $3,357), borrowing 250,000 rupees at 24% annual interest and pledging his wife's wedding jewelry as collateral.
The harvest was meant to repay the loan and cover his son's overdue college fees. Then his irrigation well ran dry. Within three weeks, the plants had turned brown and he could not salvage a single crate.
"I have lost everything I invested," Reddy told DW. "I have no money left for the next crop and I don't know how I will repay the loan."
He is now negotiating for a job as a security guard in the state capital, Bengaluru, preparing to leave his farmland behind.
Driest monsoon in 11 years
For India, the monsoon is more than just a four-month rainy season. It replenishes reservoirs, supports agriculture and helps sustain water supplies and power generation across much of the country.
More importantly, nearly half of India's workforce depends on farming for their livelihood, doing jobs that are both tough and economically insecure.
This time, the country received 759.4 millimeters of rain between June and September, against a long-term average of 868.6 millimeters. The 12.6% deficit made it the country's driest monsoon in 11 years and the fourth driest this century.
Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, a climate scientist and former secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said the main factor behind the poor monsoon was a severe El Nino. He had warned earlier that it posed a serious risk to rainfall.
"As far as the Indian monsoon is concerned, El Nino is the most important influencing factor, which we should consider very seriously,” Rajeevan told DW.
Water and power under pressure
The effects are now hitting India's water and energy systems. The country's major reservoirs ended the monsoon with less water than usual, leaving both farmers and the power sector with less of a buffer going into the months ahead.
Combined storage in the 178 reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission stood at 132.7 billion cubic meters, below the 10-year average of 151.1 billion cubic meters.
That shortfall is already being felt in electricity generation. Hydropower output fell nearly 16% in September from a year earlier, according to Grid India data. At the same time, electricity shortages reached 560 million kilowatt-hours, the highest monthly shortfall in more than three years. After sunset, when solar generation drops off, the grid has fewer options to make up the difference.
Coal-fired plants have therefore had to shoulder more of the load, but they face a problem of their own. Data from the Central Electricity Authority showed that around 40% of coal-fired plants had critically low stocks, with supplies below a quarter of the required level.
The government has ordered some private industrial power plants to operate at full capacity and feed surplus electricity into the grid.
Manufacturers are already feeling the strain.
"Uninterrupted power supply is of paramount importance for manufacturing units, as power cuts disrupt production cycles," said Ashok Gupta, president of the Mohali Industries Association, which represents nearly 600 small and medium-sized manufacturers.
"Such disruptions not only cause losses to manufacturers but also result in wastage of raw materials."
A hit to rural incomes
The economic impact of a poor monsoon can extend well beyond agriculture. Weaker farm output can hit rural incomes, employment and consumption, while higher food prices put further pressure on household budgets.
Arun Kumar, a retired professor of economics, said the effects could be wider than the headline economic numbers suggest, particularly because much of India's rural economy operates outside the formal sector.
"Economic development needs to be assessed through a wider set of indicators," Kumar told DW. He said weaker agricultural output could push up food prices while putting pressure on incomes and consumption.
Himanshu, a development economist at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, described the situation as a "twin shock" for rural households, with weaker farm incomes coming alongside higher food prices.
"When agricultural incomes fall and food prices rise, rural households face a squeeze on their purchasing power," he told DW.
The economist said the uneven distribution of rainfall could compound the problem, with some farming regions suffering much heavier losses than the national rainfall figure indicates. "The impact on rural consumption could also be significant, as households facing lower incomes and higher food costs have less money to spend on other goods and services."
Outlook increasingly difficult to predict as climate warms
The pressure is also being felt in urban households. A survey in September by India's central bank found that households were expecting inflation to rise as food and fuel prices increasingly affected sentiment.
Sunita Sharma, a homemaker in New Delhi, said her usual shopping list now costs hundreds of rupees more than it did a few months ago.
"We have no option but to cut down on discretionary expenses just to afford basic, everyday meals," Sharma told DW.
The prices of some staples have risen sharply recently. An analysis by ISignal using Department of Consumer Affairs data found that onions were 93% more expensive in September than a year earlier, while sugar prices rose 28% and rice about 8%.
The next test will be the rabi, or winter, crop. Farmers are now preparing to plant wheat, mustard and chickpeas, but success will depend largely on how much moisture remains in the soil after the weak monsoon.
Rajeevan said the longer-term outlook was also becoming increasingly difficult to predict as the climate warms.
"In a warming climate, longer dry spells and greater rainfall variability is a possibility," he said. "In future, in addition to the influence of El Nino events, we should expect the influence of a warmer climate."
Reddy, the farmer in Karnataka state, is now waiting to hear whether he has got the security job in Bengaluru, and preparing to leave his farm behind.
