India's SCO engagement in Pakistan sparks speculation over Modi's potential visit amid terrorism concerns
Quick Look
India's participation in the SCO national coordinators meeting in Islamabad, the first such visit since the 2025 Pahalgam attack, has sparked speculation about PM Modi attending the SCO heads of state summit in Pakistan next year, though officials stress that Pakistan's continued support for cross-border terrorism remains a key factor in India's decision-making process.
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Why It Matters
India became a full member of the SCO in 2017 and has attended most in-person summits since, missing only one. The Pahalgam terrorist attack in 2025 marked a significant deterioration in India-Pakistan relations, after which high-level visits between the two countries ceased. Pakistan assumed the SCO chairmanship from Kyrgyzstan at the Bishkek summit last month.
The first such visit from India to Pakistan since the 2025 Pahalgam terrorist attack highlighted how SCO, which is dominated by China and Russia, has remained insulated from India-Pakistan tensions, unlike the more modest Saarc regional framework.
NEW DELHI: India's participation in the SCO meeting of national coordinators in Islamabad to firm up the calendar for high-level meetings has sparked speculation about whether PM Modi would travel to Pakistan for the heads of state summit next year. Modi has missed only one of the seven in-person summits since India became a full member of the Eurasian bloc in 2017, but officials said his past attendance is no guarantee of a visit even for a multilateral event to Pakistan, a country India has come to describe as a serial practitioner of terrorism. Additional secretary Alok Dimri travelled to Pakistan this week for the national coordinators' meeting, as first reported by TOI on Monday. The first such visit from India to Pakistan since the 2025 Pahalgam terrorist attack highlighted how SCO, which is dominated by China and Russia, has remained insulated from India-Pakistan tensions, unlike the more modest Saarc regional framework. For a PM visit, though, as official sources said, India will factor in Pakistan's continued support for cross-border terrorism before making a final decision. The same is likely to apply for the meetings of defence and foreign ministers heading into the main summit, as India seeks tangible and irreversible action by Pakistan against cross-border terrorism to make the overall environment conducive for any substantive engagement. After the meeting this week, Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif will soon write to leaders of all member states inviting them for the SCO heads of state summit. He had last invited Modi for the heads of govt meeting in Islamabad in 2024, but India had then sent external affairs minister S Jaishankar, who usually represents India in that meeting. Modi attends the meetings of the Council of Heads of State (CHS), the supreme decision-making body of SCO, which meets annually on a rotational basis in the country chairing SCO. Pakistan assumed chairmanship from Kyrgyzstan at the Bishkek summit last month. Although Modi did skip the Kazakhstan summit in 2024, India will likely weigh multiple geopolitical factors before deciding on his potential visit to Pakistan, apart from Pakistan-backed terrorism. India's engagement with SCO facilitates the ongoing normalisation of relations with China while preserving its strategic and longstanding ties with Russia.
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Ironically, counterterrorism and security cooperation is one key reason for Delhi's engagements with the grouping that also helps India with Central Asian connectivity and regional security in Afghanistan, while reinforcing strategic autonomy. Dimri was greeted warmly in Pakistan, with an official photo showing him standing next to Pakistan deputy PM and foreign minister Ishaq Dar. Dimri said the national coordinators had finalised an agenda for common wellbeing and prosperity with focus on connectivity, trade and transit. "This programme will continue for a year and will culminate with the Islamabad Summit."
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What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
PM Modi will not attend the SCO heads of state summit in Pakistan next year unless Pakistan takes verifiable, irreversible action against cross-border terrorism.
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- Will PM Modi attend the SCO heads of state summit in Pakistan next year?
- What specific, irreversible actions will Pakistan need to take against cross-border terrorism for India to consider substantive engagement?
- How will China and Russia, as dominant powers in the SCO, influence the dynamics of India-Pakistan engagement within the bloc?
