Indonesia Blocks Polymarket Over Presidential Exit Wagers
Quick Look
Indonesia blocked Polymarket, a prediction market platform, citing it as an "online gambling site disguised as a prediction market." The move followed wagers on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before his term ends in 2029.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs has blocked access to the prediction market platform Polymarket, labeling it an online gambling site. This decision follows the platform's hosting of wagers on whether Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before the end of his term.
Indonesia blocked access to Polymarket after the prediction market platform hosted wagers on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before the end of his term.
Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs (Komdigi) announced the block on Friday, describing Polymarket as an “online gambling site disguised as a prediction market.”
"The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia,” ministry official Alexander Sabar said, adding: “Activities like Polymarket involve betting and speculation on uncertain outcomes, thus violating Indonesian law.”
The move adds Indonesia to a growing list of jurisdictions treating prediction markets as gambling products, not merely forecasting tools, as platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi face mounting legal scrutiny worldwide.
Political bets trigger scrutiny
The government action came days after Polymarket opened a wager tied to Prabowo’s presidency, allowing users to bet on whether the Indonesian leader would leave office early.
One of the markets, which appeared on Polymarket on May 21, lets users bet on whether Prabowo would leave office before several future dates, including May 31, June 30 and Dec. 31, 2026, even though his five-year presidential term is set to run until October 2029.
Source: Polymarket
The market recorded more than $46,000 in trading volume, with traders pricing a 1% chance of him leaving by May 31, 2% by June 30 and 18% by the end of 2026.
The ministry’s statement did not specifically reference the presidential exit prediction market, instead broadly characterizing Polymarket as a gambling platform operating in violation of Indonesian law.
Source: Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs (Kemkomdigi)
“As a measure to protect the public, especially the younger generation and users of the national digital space, the Ministry of Communication and Digital has blocked access to the Polymarket platform and similar services that are suspected of facilitating online gambling practices,” it said.
Prediction markets face global pressure
The Indonesian ban adds to growing regulatory pressure on prediction market platforms across multiple jurisdictions.
Supporters say prediction markets function as tools for crowd-sourced forecasting and sentiment tracking, while critics argue they can resemble online gambling and raise concerns around market manipulation as well as insider trading.
Related: CFTC officials who questioned prediction markets were suspended: NYT
India was among the latest countries to restrict access to Polymarket, extending a list of jurisdictions where the platform is blocked to more than 30. Despite the restrictions, Polymarket has recently signaled interest in pursuing regulatory approval in select markets, including Japan.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Polymarket will face continued legal and regulatory scrutiny in other jurisdictions.
Very likely · Within months
Indonesia may take further action against similar online platforms.
Likely · Within weeks
Open Questions
- Will other countries follow Indonesia's lead in blocking prediction markets?
- What specific legal provisions in Indonesia were violated by Polymarket?
- What is Polymarket's response to the Indonesian ban and its potential impact on its operations?
- How will this affect Polymarket's efforts to gain regulatory approval in markets like Japan?
