São Paulo The dream of every Uber driver in São Paulo is to have an electric car and this does not happen without reason, says Rogelio Golfarb, who was vice-president of Ford in South America and is the founder of the Zag Work consultancy.
Fueled by Chinese electrified cars powered by high technology and more competitive prices, there is a global structural change underway, which is reflected in the local market in an accelerated way and will mean that the Brazilian automotive industry will never return to what it was, says Golfarb.
On the C-Level Interview program, he states that traditional automakers are looking for alliances with Chinese ones, which is changing the local scenario. "I wouldn't say that traditional companies will disappear, but they will have to transform. The name of the game is speed", says Golfarb, who was also president of Anfavea (National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers).
"In São Paulo, Uber travels, on average, 250km per day. Take a car like this, drive everything you need, go home, plug it in. The next day it is, in quotes, with a full tank, a third of what you would pay for gasoline or ethanol", says Golfarb. "What they tell me is that the friend who has an electric vehicle earns twice as much as he earns. That's the point."
This is not without concern regarding the possibility of the country transforming into what would be a major Chinese automaker. Golfarb refutes: "The industry's biggest challenge revolves around technological intensity", he says.
The BYD factory in Camaçari, for example, began operating with practically ready-made vehicles from China, and GWM also began production with a heavy dependence on imported components.
The executive says that this, in fact, created tension in the market, but while we look at production in terms of parts, the most advanced companies look at the technological intensity of what is produced.
"We can produce all the mechanical parts, all the steel parts, but the technology comes from abroad," says Golfarb, citing liquid crystal screens, chips and semiconductors.
According to the executive, there is a legend in the market that states that, when the Chinese actually start producing in Brazil, they will lose competitiveness. It's not quite like that, he says.
The high Chinese competitiveness, he emphasizes, is due, above all, to scale. In 2025, China produced 34.5 million vehicles, while the US produced around 10 million, and Europe, 14 million.
Brazil sold 2.6 million vehicles last year, something close to what Americans sold in electric cars alone. In Europe, there were 4.5 million electric vehicles and, in China, 16.5 million.
The second point that favors the Chinese is the verticalization of production, in addition to lower project costs.
For him, it is all this innovation that causes the Brazilian automotive industry to record high sales, even in the midst of an unfavorable credit scenario.
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Anfavea revised projections for production and registrations of light and heavy vehicles in 2026. In June, the entity predicted increases of 12.1% in sales and 5.8% in production. Now, the expectation is for growth of 15.2% in sales and 6.7% in national manufacturing.
Golfarb recognizes that sales growth and high debt can bring a certain risk of default to the market, but the phenomenon is different from what was seen a few years ago, when abundant and cheap credit meant that many people were unable to honor payments.
"Here, you're motivating people who have money and who weren't going to buy a car, but with the price reduction they said: 'I'm going to take advantage'."
Brazil, he says, has room to increase sales in the automotive market, but the tax burden on the sector and interest rates would be obstacles. "And, in tax reform, the decision on the selective tax is one of the most structuring decisions we can make."
For Golfarb, the country lacks a long-term strategic vision, given Brazil's advantages such as the second largest reserve of rare earths, an abundance of minerals from electrification and a well-structured industrial park.
Instead of the government acting as usual—offering benefits from anchor automakers—it would be necessary to look at the chain, starting with mining, he says.
"Today, rare earths is a very serious geopolitical issue. I would say that, for Brazil, rare earths today are almost a second oil. Pre-salt."
Within the framework of advantages, says Golfarb, ethanol is established as a local opportunity for hybrid cars, but has little chance of conquering other markets. “Geopolitically speaking, no one is going to exchange dependence on oil for dependence on Brazilian ethanol,” he says. "The path we see is a path toward electrification."
Along the way, he recognizes that there are controversies, such as analyzes that point to energy scarcity. He remembers, however, that the American company Tesla already sells a kit in its stores in the USA for installing solar panels at home and even batteries to store this energy.
Regarding younger people, who don't seem to care about cars, Golfarb sees a change. “All this technology is starting to attract them into the car, because the car is turning into a screen for a big cell phone,” says he.
For Golfarb, even though it is not the largest importer of Chinese cars in the world—in volume it is still Russia, he says—, Brazil functions as a kind of laboratory, which attracts global attention.
"The US doesn't have a Chinese car, because they created a very strong barrier. But they are looking here because this is the microcosm of what will happen in many other places."
X-ray | Rogerio Golfarb
Graduated in Production Engineering from FEI, in São Bernardo do Campo, he joined Ford in 1981 as a product engineer in the truck area, reaching the vice-presidency of the company in South America. He retired in 2024. He was president of the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea) from 2004 to 2007, succeeding Ricardo Carvalho, from Volkswagen. He studied strategic planning at Duke University (USA). He is the founder of the automotive sector consultancy Zag Work.
