The price of bread is not just the sum of the cost of wheat flour, water, yeast, salt and the bakery's profit. Almost 30% is energy — 18.7% in electricity and gas from the ovens to bake the dough, another 11% in fuel to transport the inputs in vans, trucks and even ships.
This invisible energy expense is in every product and service around the world. The problem is that it has skyrocketed in Brazil, becoming an important element in raising the price of goods and services, putting pressure on inflation and reducing the competitiveness of the economy.
In 2000, for example, a bagel cost around R$0.15. Today, it is close to R$1. Of the R$0.85 increase, around R$0.73 —or 86%— is attributed to the increase in the cost of different energy sources throughout the production chain.
Details like these are in the study "The Impact of the Evolution of the Cost of Energy on the Price of Goods and Brazilian Inflation from 2000 to 2026". The work was carried out by Ex Ante Consultoria Econômica at the request of Abrace, an entity that represents large energy consuming companies.
According to Fernando Garcia, coordinator of the study and managing partner of Ex Ante, the objective is to show Brazilian families the energy costs hidden in products and services — which is the majority.
Of the 100% of Brazilians' electricity consumption, 35% is electricity bills. Of the total gas, 14% is spent in the kitchen or in the shower — everything else is included in products and services.
"People see how much they spend on energy tariffs, to buy a cylinder or fill up their car at the gas station, but they don't see the invisible bill that is embedded in production", says Garcia.
"And there are hidden energy costs in everything: food, school supplies, medicine, construction products, clothing, vehicles, in the plastic cup and in the machines that produced all of this — and when this energy expenditure increases, it spreads throughout the economy. That's what's happening."
In a simple school notebook, energy is equivalent to 34% of the final price, in cement, 32%, in glass, 30%, in steak meat, 27%, in ground coffee, 19%, and in automobiles, 12%.
The study also monitored the evolution of prices from 2000 to June 2026 of 48 goods and services — 32.6% of the basket that makes up the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index), taking as a reference the average weight of each item throughout this year.
The list includes everyday foods, including eggs, basic clothing such as t-shirts, public transport, but also air tickets, health plans, school fees, to name just a few. It is possible to see that energy has become a kind of famine villain — as a whole, 68% of the increase in these 48 items was driven by expenses with electricity, gas and fuel.
In the 26 years analyzed, energy accounted for 79% of the increase in long-life milk, 71% of the increase in the price of sneakers, 61% of the increase in beer and 53% of the increase in deodorant.
The cost is mixed with the provision of numerous services. Around 23% of the increase in that dish made outside the home was energy, because in addition to the cost of preparation, the bar and restaurant spend a lot on refrigeration and air conditioning.
Tap water has a high energy cost. Basic sanitation depends on machines to capture, treat, pump and distribute water and to collect and treat sewage. Expenses on electricity for sanitation went from R$2.9 billion in 2010 to R$9.1 billion in 2024, an increase of 213%.
The expense that rose the most, however, was on energy-intensive chemical products — an increase of 369% —, driven mainly by the chlorine used in the treatment. Electricity accounts for up to 70% of the cost of chlorine depending on the type of production.
The survey also measured the impact on capital goods and sectors linked to investments, based on 2021, the last year with detailed data from the IBGE National Accounts.
In the civil construction chain, energy was equivalent to 14% of the cost. In the production of machinery and equipment, it was 13%, reaching 21.6% in the case of electrical machinery and equipment. Taking this participation as a premise, the study identified that 72% of the price increase in civil construction in the last two decades came from energy. In the case of machine production in general, it was 28%.
BRAZIL AT DISADVANTAGE
Garcia explains that this type of "energy inflation" is a local phenomenon, because the cost of energy for Brazilian production is much higher than in other markets.
Between 2000 and 2026, the price of electricity paid by Brazilian productive sectors, in dollars, rose 327.7% — 182.4 percentage points above the United States and 218.1 points above the European Union.
In natural gas, the price of the molecule increased by 154.5% in Brazil, while it fell by 64% in the United States. In comparison with the European Union, the Brazilian increase was 48.1 percentage points higher.
"When energy becomes more expensive, the industry loses competitiveness, produces less and this cost ends up reaching Brazilians' pockets in the form of more expensive products and services", says Daniela Coutinho, vice-president of Abrace Energia.
"Persisting in this anti-industrial energy policy means compromising the country's production, employment and development."
For Garcia, the increase in price results from the lack of a long-term strategy for the energy sector. It has been more than 20 years since governments chose to solve specific problems with disconnected decisions, resorting in particular to the creation of benefits and subsidies, which do not go to the Budget and are distributed in the energy tariff.
It has everything. Reduction in electricity bills for low-income people, incentives for new sources (which no longer need support, according to experts), financing for thermal plants to provide security to the system and favoring some sectors to the detriment of others. The snowball grew and created a paradox: Brazil produces an abundance of cheap and clean energy, but charges the most expensive tariffs in the world.
"There's no point in giving with one hand and taking with the other, because that's what governments have done: cheap electricity bills for some, more expensive bread for everyone."
LOSS OF COMPETITIVENESS
One of the differences in the survey is that it presents the unit cost of energy — the energy expenditure per unit of goods produced. In simple terms, how much is spent on different sources to produce a cookie, a tractor, a fork or a paper-making machine.
The calculation follows the evolution from 2000 to June 2026 in base 100: that is, it assigns the value 100 to the initial year and measures the variation from there. This type of indicator makes it possible to compare the impact of different energy sources on the cost of national production.
During this period, the unit cost of electricity for Brazilian industry increased by 1,593% in reais — more than four times inflation. In dollars, the increase was 523.8%. In natural gas, the increase was greater: the cost per unit produced increased by 2,604% in reais, around seven times inflation. In dollars, it increased 896%.
In the same period, industrial prices rose 613% in Brazil, compared to 102% in the United States and 45% in the European Union.
For Garcia, expensive energy has become an obstacle to the Brazilian economy, along with other problems, such as a high tax burden, lack of infrastructure, bureaucracy and poor education. "Energy has become one of the most important factors in the country's deindustrialization, especially in the electro-intensive sectors."
