Official inflation for September, calculated by the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), closed the month of September at 0.82%. It is the highest level since March 2026 (0.88%).
Last month's result was pressured by the end of the Itaipu Bonus, a discount that consumers received on their August electricity quota.
With the September index, inflation will accumulate 4.58% in 12 months, above the government's target, which tolerates up to 4.5%. In August, when the IPCA had shown deflation (-0.32%), the accumulated figure was 4.22%.
The data was released this Friday (9) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The last time the 12-month sum had exceeded the target ceiling was in June (4.64%).
The inflation target stipulated by the National Monetary Council (CMN) is 3%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points more or less, that is, a range of 1.5% to 4.5%.
Since the beginning of 2025, the target evaluation period refers to the 12 months immediately past and not just what was achieved at the end of the year (December). The target is considered to be missed if inflation exceeds the tolerance interval for six months in a row.
Above expectation
Last month's IPCA was above market estimates. The Focus bulletin report from last Monday (5), a survey by the Central Bank (BC) with financial market agents, projects that September inflation would be 0.60%. For the end of 2026, the market signals 5.01%.
Housing, transport and food were the groups of products and services determined by IBGE that pushed the IPCA up the most:
Food and beverages: 0.83% (impact of 0.18 p.p.)
Housing: 2.31% (0.35 p.p.)
Household items: 0.27% (0.01 p.p.)
Clothing: 0.71% (0.03 p.p.)
Transport: 0.89% (0.18 p.p.)
Health and personal care: 0.08% (0.01 p.p.)
Personal expenses: 0.26% (0.03 p.p.)
Education: 0.04% (0.00 p.p.)
Communication: 0.64% (0.03 p.p.)
End of bonus
Housing was the group that put the most pressure on the IPCA due to the cost of electricity, which increased 7.98% in September. Thus, the electricity bill was the price that pushed inflation up the most last month, with an impact of 0.32 percentage points. In August, it had fallen 7.63%.
The main explanation for the acceleration from one month to the next is the return of the Itaipu Bonus, a discount that consumers received on the previous month's electricity bill.
The bonus consists of the distribution of the positive balance in the commercialization account of Itaipu, a state-owned hydroelectric plant, which becomes a credit in the energy bills.
In September, as this discount was no longer available, the “normal” electricity bill is compared to the lower one in August, making the difference from one month to the next greater. This effect was already expected by IBGE and analysts.
IBGE also reported that there was a contractual adjustment to the electricity bill in Belém, São Luís and Vitória. As the IPCA is a national index, movements in certain metropolitan regions influence the index average.
Transport
The transport group (+0.89%) was pressured by air tickets, which rose 9.66%. Furthermore, fuels became 1.41% more expensive. There was an increase in the prices of gasoline (1.21%), ethanol (3.16%), diesel oil (1.69%) and vehicle gas (0.10%).
Food
After three consecutive months of decline, the food and beverage group rose in September. Food at home became 0.96% more expensive.
See the main impacts on the food group:
tomato: 37.76%
potato: 24.07%
onion: 10.14%
rice: 4.56%
meat: 0.63%
On the falls side, the following stand out:
whole chicken: -1.96%
chicken pieces: -1.41%
fruits: -1.12%
Price monitoring
The diffusion index indicates that 55% of the 377 products and services surveyed by IBGE had a price increase. Last month it was at 54%.
The IBGE disaggregates the IPCA into two groups, services, which includes prices that are most influenced by the heating or cooling of the economy - that is, more susceptible to the Selic rate - and monitored prices, which are usually controlled by contracts, and fuels.
In September, the services group rose 0.61% and accumulated 5.98% in 12 months. The monitored group jumped 1.59% and totaled 4.13% over the course of a year.
The IPCA calculates the cost of living for families with incomes between one and 40 minimum wages.
Price collection is carried out in ten metropolitan regions - Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Vitória, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre - in addition to Brasília and in the capitals Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís and Aracaju.
