Germany risks being drawn into violent conflict with Russia. The warning from the president of the German Foreign Intelligence Service, Martin Jäger, who considers Russia the greatest threat to Germany, places the confrontation with Moscow on a dimension that goes beyond espionage and intimidation. "Russia is waging a shadow war against us," he stated this Monday before the control committee of the Bundestag's Intelligence services. A war without a formal declaration, but with concrete objectives and effects: conditioning Berlin's decisions, breaking European support for Ukraine and demonstrating that resisting the Kremlin has a price.
"The confrontation we find ourselves in with Russia has taken on a new, more dangerous dimension: Germany risks entering into a violent conflict with Russia," declared the head of the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND). His warnings marked the annual public appearance of those responsible for the three federal Intelligence services before the parliamentary control body, in the midst of debate on a legal reform that would expand their powers of surveillance and intervention. Services want to be able to act against the threats they detect, as well as report on them.
Jäger described the Russian services as "highly professional and ruthless" and pointed to the attempted attack at Halle/Leipzig airport as an example of that threat. There, in early August, a drone prepared with explosives was discovered next to Ukrainian cargo planes. "The danger of attacks against targets in Germany remains real and current," he stressed.
The president of the BND attributes to Moscow an ambition that goes beyond hindering military supplies to kyiv: to prevent Berlin and other European capitals from taking decisions contrary to Russian interests. Germany has become, according to its diagnosis, a target of this strategy due to its support for Ukraine and its resistance to pressure from the Kremlin. "We have not sought this confrontation. Russia imposes it on us and considers us one of its main adversaries," he said. "He who does not submit becomes an enemy: that is Moscow's interpretation."
The warning contains, however, a decisive distinction. The BND currently has no evidence of a large-scale Russian attack on NATO territory. It does consider possible low-intensity military actions, especially in the Baltic, and false flag operations, designed to attribute an attack to another actor. Jäger also does not rule out new nuclear threats. Intimidation is part of the method: "Moscow is betting on our weakness."
Jäger's diagnosis links this pressure on Europe with the evolution of the war in Ukraine, which, as he explained, has intensified since the summer and is entering a new and especially dangerous phase. In his opinion, Putin has passed the point at which he could stop the invasion without putting his power base at risk. It needs to present "a success" that justifies, from the Russian perspective, the sacrifices made.
A danger of the present
The head of Internal Intelligence, Sinan Selen, set a date for that confrontation: the present. "They are attacking us now, not in 2029," said the president of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV). The horizon of 2029, used in military scenarios regarding the possible recovery of Russia's ability to launch a major offensive, does not amount to a prediction of attack nor does it grant a truce until then.
"Russia has crossed red lines with its hybrid attacks," Selen said. In its description, the repertoire includes sabotage, assassination plans, attempted attacks and disinformation. The services have managed to thwart operations, he added, but the situation continues to worsen.
The interference also extends down the German political map. If previously Russian attempts to influence were concentrated in federal elections, now the services observe them in regional and municipal elections. Selen described closely monitoring the public debate to respond with disinformation and "sow discord and uncertainty."
The president of military counterintelligence (MAD), Martina Rosenberg, agreed that the change has already occurred. "Before we talked about an abstract threat; today we face concrete attacks," he declared. His warning encompassed the external and internal dangers facing German democracy and the Bundeswehr.
An "operational defense service"
This shared diagnosis led to an equally common demand: more operational capacity. Selen called for transforming the BfV into an "operational defense service." Jäger defended the reorganization of the BND and Rosenberg recalled that his organization's legislation is more than 20 years old, while internet communications have changed radically.
The reform promoted by the Government, debated in first reading on September 24 and sent to parliamentary committees, would expand data collection, storage and analysis capabilities. It would also allow the BND and the BfV to intervene in limited cases to neutralize dangers that other authorities cannot combat with the same effectiveness. Among the examples offered by the Executive is disconnecting a foreign server from which a cyber attack is about to be launched.
The leap is substantial: services designed to obtain information would receive new tools to intervene against threats. The Government maintains that this expansion would be accompanied by reinforced supervision and prior authorizations from the Independent Control Council for the most intrusive measures. The opposition has questioned the scope of the planned powers and the border between Intelligence and police action.
Jäger also supported the expansion and unification of the control mechanisms provided for in the reform. The transformation defended by the three officials seeks to place their capabilities at the level of those of other European services, a need that Selen insisted on in the face of worsening threats.
Those responsible for the services, whose appearances are usually held behind closed doors, took advantage of their annual public presentation to defend this change. His argument was condensed in Selen's phrase: the attacks are already happening. And in Jäger's, which places Intelligence as "the first line of defense" against a war that, according to the BND, Moscow is waging without declaring it.
