Bad news for Apple before iPhone Duo comes out: Sales forecasts have been lowered

The latest evaluation about Apple indicates that what is expected in iPhone sales may not come true. So what's the reason for this? Details are in our news.

While iPhone Duo excitement continued on Apple's side, an uninspiring evaluation came from the investor side. US-based investment company Loop Capital reduced its recommendation for Apple shares from "Buy" to "Hold". Behind the decision lies the prediction that the expected recovery in iPhone sales will no longer occur.

13 million iPhones will not be compensated

Apple had previously reduced iPhone shipments planned for the September and December quarters by approximately 10 percent. Loop Capital thought that this outage was not due to low demand but to problems in memory and processor supply, and assumed that the missing devices would be replaced during 2027. However, the company's latest investigations into its supply chain have dashed this expectation. According to the new assessment, Apple is not preparing to compensate for the approximately 13 million iPhones removed from plans in the second half of 2026.

This picture was also reflected in the target price. Loop Capital reduced its target price for Apple shares from $370 to $330.

Expectations fell for the December quarter

The company forecasts shipments of 79 million iPhones in the December quarter. The general expectation of the market is at 85 million. The average sales price estimate was also reduced from $1,239 to $1,123.

More iPhones will be sold in 2027, but revenue will fall

What's interesting is that 2027 predictions go in two different directions. Loop Capital predicts that Apple will sell 260 million iPhones in 2027, and this figure is above the previous prediction. However, the devices are expected to be sold cheaper on average. While the average sales price estimate was reduced from $1,235 to $1,096, the iPhone revenue estimate was also reduced from $315 billion to $285 billion. It is also emphasized that continuing to rise memory costs may put pressure on Apple's profit margin.

Split launch schedule confuses the table

Apple's launch of its products at different times this year also makes it difficult to read the financial statement. iPhone 18 Pro models went on sale in September, while iPhone Duo hits the shelves on October 23. The standard iPhone 18 and affordable models are expected to arrive in spring 2027. The absence of the standard model this fall is cited as one of the main reasons for Apple's shipment decline in the third quarter.

Still, Apple's position in the market is strong. Due to memory shortages, global smartphone shipments fell 20 percent on an annual basis in the third quarter, falling to the lowest third quarter level in the last 14 years. In the same period, Apple's market share increased from 18 percent to 22 percent. This rate was the highest level the company reached in a third quarter.

I think this downgrade is more of a reality check than an alarm bell for Apple. The company continues to grow its market share, but the memory crisis affects Apple as well as the entire industry. The real question will be how well the iPhone Duo can fill this gap, despite its high price.