Disrupted export routes for oil and gas, lack of stability and recurring attacks: The discussion in the Arab Gulf states about whether and how they should adapt their business models and alliances has long since begun.
At the Manama Dialogue security conference, however, a more pressing question comes to the fore: Is the US planning the next major military strike against Iran?
New US attacks on Iran after the midterm elections?
It is generally assumed that a new phase of escalation is imminent, says Hasan Alhasan. He leads research on the Gulf region at the think tank Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Signals from the Trump administration suggested preparations were underway. "A new round of fighting could be imminent."
That could be shortly after the US midterm elections on Tuesday. However, Alhasan also emphasizes that a resurgence of the conflict is not inevitable.
Iran war is a blow to the economy
Alhasan's think tank has invited people to the major security conference in Manama, the capital of the island kingdom of Bahrain in the Persian Gulf. High-ranking military officials as well as foreign and security politicians came. They come from the Arab world, from Asia, the USA and also from Germany, including Nils Schmid, SPD politician and parliamentary state secretary in the Ministry of Defense.
He emphasizes: "We are already massively affected by the effects of the war here in the Gulf region - through rising oil prices, through rising inflation, through the weakening of the global economy." According to Schmid, a renewed outbreak of war would again weaken the economy in Germany and Europe. "That's why we are committed to a diplomatic solution."
But what if appeals and diplomatic advances go unheard? What if Iran again massively targets energy facilities and military bases in response to a possible US attack?
Gulf states are arming
"I think we are well prepared for what lies ahead," said Mariam al-Dhain, a member of Bahrain's parliament. She emphasizes how prudent her country's leadership is: "We have dealt intensively with strategic considerations, so I believe that Bahrain is very well positioned at this point in time."
If she wants more, she's probably not allowed to say more. Public expression is strictly controlled in Bahrain. Sascha Bruchmann is more specific. The military analyst also works for the IISS think tank in Manama: "We can clearly see that the Gulf states have bought in." He cites a deal with Ukraine on anti-drone technology.
In addition, the Gulf states have invested billions in US systems, trained them and revised their own systems and structures. Bruchmann says that the USA will remain by far the most important defense partner for the Gulf states in the medium term.
Frustration with Trump
At the same time, one cannot ignore the frustration that US President Donald Trump has started the war against Iran, even though the Arab Gulf states have warned against it.
"The Gulf states are undoubtedly aware that they cannot rely on the USA in the long term," said Bruchmann's colleague Hasan Alhasan. The result is the emergence of new regional security alliances and alliances.
He addresses the defense alliance between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. Other states in the region are also in the process of looking for new, additional partners for their security. South Korea is playing an increasingly important role as a supplier of defense systems. The United Arab Emirates also relies on Israeli technology.
Greece for more EU involvement
The names of European states are rarely mentioned in Manama when it comes to security and defense. Representatives from the EU are certainly present in Bahrain.
At the opening, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis called for a stronger European commitment to freedom of sea routes, including through military means: "If we really care about the security concerns of our friends in the Gulf, we must demonstrate more actively that we follow our words with actions."
Specifically, Mitsotakis addresses the EU naval mission "Aspides", which aims to protect international merchant ships from attacks by the Yemeni Houthis. Five EU states are currently taking part in “Aspides”, including Germany. However, there could also be ten, according to the Greek head of government.
Schmid relies on diplomacy
Nils Schmid emphasizes several times how important a diplomatic solution is. The Europeans wanted to support talks: “We should not just talk about a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.” "The deeper problems of the Iranian nuclear program and the Iranian missile program must also be resolved in discussions."
However, Iranian representatives are not present at the Manama Dialogue. Bahrain is the only Arab Gulf state that does not maintain diplomatic relations with the government in Tehran. At the same time, delegates from the Emirate of Qatar are holding talks with the government in Tehran to mediate between Iran and the USA - in the hope that the escalation that many expected will not occur.
