A new Parliament and, already, negotiations under high tension. Israeli deputies met on Tuesday, November 10, for their first session since the legislative elections. Opposition leader, centrist Gadi Eisenkot, is now tasked with the thorny task of forming a new government. If it manages, within a very fragmented Parliament, to bring together the anti-Netanyahu parties, the new coalition should unravel certain laws promulgated by the previous executive, in particular concerning the reform of the Supreme Court or the independence of the judicial system.
On the front of multiple external military operations, the opposition does not, however, propose any major change compared to Benjamin Netanyahu. “Practically the entire Israeli political class agrees on three objectives: to fight and disarm Hezbollah, crush Hamas and dismantle the Iranian nuclear system,” lists Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, professor emeritus of universities and honorary president of the Mediterranean-Middle East Research and Studies Institute.
From Iran to Lebanon, objectives shared by most parties
During the campaign, Gadi Eisenkot criticized Benjamin Netanyahu for "the impasse in which Israel finds itself in the war with Iran", the American-Israeli strikes having not achieved their objective of depriving Tehran of any means of obtaining nuclear weapons, points out Jean-Paul Chagnollaud. “He had also criticized the Prime Minister for his desire to strike Iran before the elections,” adds David Rigoulet-Roze, researcher at the French Institute of Strategic Analysis (Ifas) and editor-in-chief of the journal Strategic Orients.
But “the need to overcome the Iranian threat is a consensus in Israel,” continues the researcher. There would therefore be "no major difference" between a government led by Gadi Eisenkot and the approach so far adopted by Benjamin Netanyahu against Tehran, assures Jean-Paul Chagnollaud. In September, the Jerusalem Post affirmed that the centrist also wanted to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons "permanently", in particular by carrying out systematic strikes in the event of Iranian movements near the sites where enriched uranium is stored.
After months of open tensions between Benjamin Netanyahu and his American ally, "Gadi Eisenkot would perhaps be more inclined to make compromises with the United States, with a view to an agreement" on the end of the conflict, believes Jean-Paul Chagnollaud. But he would no more accept than Benjamin Netanyahu a text that would not guarantee Israel's long-term security, assures the Jerusalem Post.
In Lebanon either, where the war with the Jewish state has left more than 4,300 dead since March, we should not expect a change in strategy in the event of a change of Prime Minister. “It is not because we are talking about [a coalition with] center-right or center-left movements that they are less in favor of the military solution,” underlines David Rigoulet-Roze. Gadi Eisenkot, former general in the Israeli army, has already demonstrated in the past that he could adopt "a tough stance towards Hezbollah", adds Jean-Paul Chagnollaud. In 2006, he initiated the Dahiya doctrine, a military strategy named after a heavily bombed district of Beirut to weaken Hezbollah, at the cost of civilian lives.
“Gadi Eisenkot is the inventor of this doctrine of great violence, which involves a disproportionate use of force, and is determined to use military means to crush the Lebanese Hezbollah. He is on a line similar to that of Benjamin Netanyahu.”
Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, professor emeritus of universities
at franceinfo
For David Rigoulet-Roze, the centrist "does not intend to establish himself in South Lebanon", still occupied by Israeli forces despite a fragile ceasefire, "but [he will not order] the withdrawal of the army if this threatens the security" of the Hebrew state. “Everything will depend on the negotiations between the future Israeli government and the Lebanese executive”, underlines the specialist, who recalls that Gadi Eisenkot “is in a pragmatic logic, and not ideological”.
An alliance with Likud, but without Netanyahu
Without being the subject of major divisions, the Israeli parties are less homogeneous on the question of the Palestinian territories. Since the trauma caused by the October 7 attacks, Israelis have largely rejected the idea of a diplomatic solution in Gaza. “Gadi Eisenkot opposed [the recognition] of a Palestinian state during his mandate,” if he were appointed Prime Minister, recalls David Rigoulet-Roze. None of the Jewish parties sitting in the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, openly supports this idea.
“Everyone agrees to crush Hamas in Gaza,” also underlines Jean-Paul Chagnollaud. Unlike Benjamin Netanyahu, a government led by Gadi Einsenkot "would be less obstructive to the implementation of Donald Trump's plan" for peace in the Palestinian enclave, judge David Rigoulet-Roze. Unlike certain far-right parties, he is also opposed to the annexation of the occupied West Bank and has described the violence perpetrated by Israeli settlers against the Palestinians as “Jewish terrorism”. “Gadi Eisenkot does not defend these ideas out of support” for the Palestinian population of the West Bank, but because he believes that integrating it into Israel would endanger the Jewish identity of the state, explains the researcher. And the centrist does not intend to put an end to colonization in the occupied West Bank.
Also read
The Arab parties, which obtained 19 seats in the Knesset and represent 20% of the population of the Jewish state, could provide decisive support to Gadi Eisenkot. And, probably, condition this alliance on “a distancing from the annexationist policy of Benjamin Netanyahu” in the Palestinian territories, argues David Rigoulet-Roze. But the centrist does not seem to be moving towards an agreement with the Arab parties, most Jewish groups rejecting any form of collaboration with the Joint List and Raam.
This is the case of secular ultranationalist Avigdor Liberman, who campaigned on the promise of imposing conscription on all Israelis, including religious students. Rather than having to join forces with Arab parties to form a government, "he recently said he was ready for an alliance with the ultra-orthodox United Torah Judaism party, which left the government shortly before the elections, while continuing to support Benjamin Netanyahu," explains David Rigoulet-Roze. By opening the way to negotiations with the ultraorthodox, Avidgor Liberman would allow Gadi Eisenkot's coalition to get closer to the majority of 61 deputies.
