Iran-USA, Paniccia's analysis: "Focusing on economic war, but sanctions are not enough"

"Trusting in a real agreement between Iran and Trump now appears useless" and the hypothesis of a decisive military attack has been discarded, "Trump is aiming for economic war, but sanctions alone are never decisive and are unlikely to cause the fall of the Iranian regime in the short term". This is the opinion of Arduino Paniccia, military and geopolitical strategy analyst, founder and president of Asce, School of Economic Warfare and International Competition of Venice, expressed on the sidelines of a meeting in Udine.

Secondary sanctions, specifies Paniccia, "mean dealing directly with China and Russia and verifying the real desire of Beijing, Moscow and New Delhi to isolate Tehran". A strategy that "risks producing results only in the long term, but the West does not have enough time".

On the contrary, "the Strait of Hormuz has essentially reopened to merchant traffic and this is, at the moment, the only concrete result obtained by the United States in the conflict with Iran". "The US Navy is finally showing its muscles - adds the analyst - along the route close to Oman, under the protection of the American fleet, 10-15 ships including cargo and oil tankers transit simultaneously and in the last two days over 10 million barrels of oil have crossed the Strait between entry and exit". According to Paniccia, therefore, "all that remains is to support the de facto reopening of Hormuz, also with the contribution of allies, to prevent the energy crisis from turning into an inflationary, recessive and, ultimately, social crisis".