Israelis head to polling stations Tuesday to decide the political fate of Benjamin Netanyahu, the country’s longest-serving Prime Minister who faces one of the most consequential tests of his decadeslong political career.
From 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. local time (1 a.m. to 4 p.m. EDT), Israelis can cast votes for representatives in the Knesset, in the first election in the country since the Oct. 7, 2023 terrorist attacks by Palestinian militant group Hamas and the subsequent Israeli war in the Gaza Strip.
Since then, Israel under Netanyahu has pursued an aggressive military campaign across the Middle East—going to war with Iran, backing settler attacks and displacement in the West Bank, and carrying out strikes against militant groups in Lebanon and Yemen.
Tuesday’s election is widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership and Israelis’ willingness to change course amid uncertainty. And according to polls, the outcome is far from certain.
“I hope this will be a true holiday for democracy,” Isaac Herzog, the Israeli head of state, told reporters from a polling station in Rehavia, where he and his wife voted. “No one can be allowed to spoil or undermine it.”
Two main political blocs are contending to form Israel’s next government. The first is the pro-Netanyahu coalition led by Netanyahu’s Likud party. The coalition includes far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, such as Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) led by national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Religious Zionism-Zehut led by finance minister Bezalel Smotrich. Their ultranationalist policies have found an audience in younger right-wing Israelis.
On the other side are the Jewish-led opposition movements—with former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot and centrist Yashar (Straight) at the forefront. Eisenkot, who entered politics in 2022, joined Netanyahu’s emergency war cabinet after the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. But after having lost a son in combat in Israel’s wars, Eisenkot left his post in 2024. Two of his nephews also died fighting in Gaza, a prominent campaign talking point.
The opposition also includes a joint ticket led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid, the secular nationalist party Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) led by former finance minister Avigdor Lieberman, and the Democrats led by former IDF deputy chief of staff Yair Golan.
Some polls suggest that Eisenkot’s Yashar party may garner slightly more support than Netanyahu’s Likud, but they also project that neither the Prime Minister’s right-wing bloc nor the opposition may win the 61 Knesset seats needed to form a government.
Including Arab parties such as United Arab List (Ra’am) and the Joint List, or fringe parties, could be necessary to form a government. Both pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu coalitions have so far ruled out teaming up with the Arab-led parties. Arab citizens of Israel make up about 20% of the population, though they receive fewer government services and endure higher poverty and unemployment rates. Discrimination and disappointment have historically depressed Arab-Israeli voter turnout.
Netanyahu hopes to maintain his premiership with the help of his longstanding ally, U.S. President Donald Trump, who only announced his endorsement days before the election as conflict in the Middle East has tested their friendship.
In a late-night TV appearance on Oct. 25, Netanyahu boasted of Trump’s endorsement and said that Trump was willing to take action “that would finally, finally, remove the Iranian threat” so long as Netanyahu stayed in power. Netanyahu added that he has already instructed Israel’s national intelligence agency Mossad as well as the IDF to “bring down” the Iranian regime. Trump remains very popular in Israel.
At stake for Netanyahu could be more than his continued leadership. The premier faces an international arrest warrant for alleged crimes related to the Israeli military campaign in Gaza. And even domestically, critics have demanded an inquiry into Netanyahu’s decision-making around Oct. 7, which resulted in over 1,200 people in Israel killed and around 250 hostages taken and which many consider to be a major security failure.
The Gaza health ministry reports that since Oct. 7, 2023, more than 74,000 individuals have been killed. In the absence of independent monitoring on the ground, Gaza’s health ministry is the primary source for casualty data relied upon by humanitarian groups, journalists, and international bodies. Its figures do not differentiate between civilians and combatants and cannot be independently verified by TIME.
Another issue driving the election is public fury over ultra-Orthodox communities’ exemption from military conscription for men engaged in religious studies. Despite a shortage of soldiers, less than 10% of eligible ultra-Orthodox men enlist, amid demands from Netanyahu’s allies to exempt them. Eisenkot, Netanyahu’s main rival, has promised to end the de facto exemptions.
Netanyahu’s repeated attempts to reform the judiciary also factor into this election, with critics slamming his undermining of democratic institutions and connecting it to his legal interests. Netanyahu is in the middle of a yearslong corruption trial, which he and his allies—including Trump—have claimed is politically motivated. He sought but didn’t receive a presidential pardon from Herzog.
About 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote on Tuesday. The election fills the Knesset’s 120 seats through proportional representation—which means parties, not personalities, are on these voters’ ballots.
After polling stations close at 10 p.m. (4 p.m. EDT), local media are expected to broadcast exit polls. The final vote tally is expected by Oct. 30, with official results published on Nov. 4.
But getting a clear picture of the Israeli government is likely to take longer. No single party has ever claimed 61 seats to form a government, meaning Israel has always been governed by coalitions. What those coalitions may look like will depend on the election outcomes for smaller parties, which each need 3.25% of the votes to secure a seat in the Knesset.
