Israel, neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot have a majority: the scenarios for the new government

Another central data is that of turnout. Israeli voters flocked to the polls to choose the country's future, despite unfavorable conditions: a flood in the southern territories, roads closed due to bad weather, a lightning storm in the center, heavy rain in Jerusalem. Voter turnout reached 77.7%, the highest figure recorded since 2001. In total, 5,695,682 voters voted, 7.1% more than in the previous elections.

The government's tension over the elections resulted in the avalanche of posts published on social media by Netanyahu who, as he already did in 2022, raised the alarm: "They are trying to steal the elections from us. Higher-than-normal voter turnout in the left's strongholds. It's a choice between the right and Palestine. Right-wing voters, it's an emergency! Go and vote for the Likud immediately!", he wrote. He then cited the arrest of three members of the Arab Ra'am party who had envelopes with cash to influence the vote. And again: "You have been warned: the turnout among Arab voters in the South is enormously higher than that of Jews, you must go and vote! Bring your grandmother, your aunt, your neighbor, no sea or barbecue today", he added. The Likud then asked for an extension of voting hours, but the Election Commission rejected the petition.

When the official results are in, the ball will pass into the hands of President Isaac Herzog, who will consult the parties and entrust the task to the candidate he deems most capable of forming a majority: he will have 28 days to negotiate the ministries and programmatic points with the allies, with the possibility of requesting an extension of a further two weeks.

If negotiations stall and the first attempt fails, the law provides for a second exploratory mandate or, ultimately, a period of 21 days in which Parliament itself can indicate a candidate through a petition signed by a majority of deputies. In the meantime, Netanyahu remains interim prime minister. If it is possible to form a government, it will then be necessary to gain the trust of the Knesset which, being a simple majority (therefore of those present to vote), could also result in a minority government. If the consultations fail and no leader is able to find a synthesis, Israeli law leaves no room for prolonged power vacuums: the Knesset is automatically dissolved, giving the floor back to the voters and starting the country towards new early elections.