According to Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, the election result in Brazil ruined the plans to end the diplomatic crisis between the two countries and "move the embassy to Jerusalem".
While the political turmoil in Serbia has thrown critical arms shipments and unmanned aerial vehicle partnerships into uncertainty, it has revealed the risks posed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's reliance on personal alliances in foreign policy.
In Brazil, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva defeated Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, and secured the presidency for another term.
In Serbia, former President Aleksandar Vucic acknowledged his defeat in parliamentary elections against a student-led movement that emerged from nearly two years of anti-government protests.
According to the newspaper, the situation in Brazil represents a missed opportunity to improve diplomatic relations. Developments in Serbia, on the other hand, leave the strategic partnership based on arms supply, defense technology and military cooperation facing serious uncertainty.
Jerusalem plan collapsed with Bolsonaro's defeat
Relations between Israel and Brazil are currently at a historical low point.
Israel declared President Silva "persona non grata" due to his statements comparing the attacks on Gaza to the Holocaust and the attitude of Israeli soldiers to the attitude of the Nazis.
Due to this crisis, both countries currently do not have an ambassador working in each other's capital.
Flavio Bolsonaro, who ran for election in this tense environment between the two countries, promised to reverse the policies of the Lula administration, deepen military and diplomatic cooperation, and move the Brazilian Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
Bolsonaro also revealed his intention to restore the level of diplomatic representation, promising to accept the credentials of a new Israeli ambassador on his first day in office.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also openly supported the possibility of a change of government in Brazil, congratulated Bolsonaro after the first round and expressed his wishes for success for the second round.
However, Netanyahu's open public support for Bolsonaro further deepened the gap between him and Lula, from whom he was already distant.
Netanyahu is not expected to call Lula to congratulate him on his election victory.
According to the news, Flavio Bolsonaro's defeat in the ballot box means that all these promises will be shelved.
This defeat completely eliminates the return of ambassadors to the capitals, closer cooperation in the field of defense and the possibility of moving the embassy to Jerusalem, and leaves Israel facing a new era under the Lula administration, whose relationship with Netanyahu remains openly hostile.
Relations between Serbia and Israel turned into a military partnership
According to the newspaper, the results of the Serbian elections may cause much heavier consequences for Israel, since the ties between Tel Aviv and Belgrade have already turned into a strategic military partnership.
Under Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia became a key supplier during Israel's genocidal attacks on the Gaza Strip.
While many countries imposed restrictions or embargoes on arms exports to Israel due to war crimes, the Serbian administration continued to ship military equipment and ammunition uninterruptedly. In fact, a large-scale air bridge was established with the record increase in shipments during the Gaza attacks. In this way, the Israeli army supplemented its stocks of bombs, missiles and artillery shells, which it consumed while attacking Gaza.
This military logistics line between the two countries turned into joint production in September 2026. A factory that assembles Israeli-origin unmanned aerial vehicles was opened in Serbia, in cooperation with the Israeli defense company Elbit Systems.
It is unclear whether military cooperation will continue
However, Vucic's loss in the elections raised serious questions about whether the new Serbian leadership would continue this military cooperation.
Another dimension of the change of power in Serbia is the possibility of rapprochement with the European Union.
European Union factor
The first sign of this process was that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the election victory of the student movement and announced that the union was ready to support Serbia's accession process.
According to the news, Belgrade's quest for integration with European institutions may lead the new administration to face pressure to comply with the official line adopted by the European Union on the Israel-Palestine issue and to suspend the military partnership with Tel Aviv.
Netanyahu's foreign policy weakness
According to the newspaper, the election results in both countries reveal the flaws in the way Netanyahu has built many of Israel's international relations.
This problem is not limited to Brazil and Serbia. Similar risks arise in relations between the United States and European countries and Israel, where changes in government can directly affect policies even if strategic interests remain the same.
