The general elections to be held in Israel on October 27 may be a critical turning point for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's long-term political power.
Polls show that there will be a close race between Netanyahu's right-wing alliance and opposition parties in the elections to be held for all 120 seats in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset.
However, due to Israel's election system, it is not guaranteed that the party or alliance that comes first in the ballot box will form the government.
The proportional representation system is implemented in Israel. In order for parties to form a government, they must receive the support of at least 61 of the 120 seats in the Knesset.
To date, no political party in the country has achieved an absolute majority in the parliament on its own.
Therefore, the formation of a government depends on the coalition negotiations that will be held after the election results.
According to the poll by public broadcaster KAN, the opposition bloc is predicted to win 52 seats, and the parties supporting Netanyahu are predicted to win 50 seats.
However, while different studies reveal varying results, there is no definitive picture that any bloc will gain a majority on its own.
8 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
1. NETANYAHU MAY FORM A GOVERNMENT AGAIN
Even though Netanyahu's party, Likud, lags behind the opposition in the polls, it may form a new coalition after the election.
Netanyahu's traditional allies include far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power Party and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism Party.
Ultra-Orthodox parties such as Shas and United Torah Judaism may also play a critical role in forming the government.
If a sufficient majority is achieved in the parliament with the support of these parties, Netanyahu can become prime minister again.
2. THE OPPOSITION MAY FORM A MAJORITY GOVERNMENT
Anti-Netanyahu parties have increased political cooperation in order to act together before the election.
At the end of September, an agreement was reached between Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu and the Together alliance, aiming to end Netanyahu's rule.
One of the opposition's strongest prime ministerial candidates is seen as former Chief of General Staff and Yashar Party leader Gadi Eisenkot.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is also among the possible prime ministerial candidates.
However, in order for the opposition to form a government, it must reach sufficient seat support after the election.
3. PALESTINE PARTIES MAY DETERMINE THE FATE OF THE GOVERNMENT
Parties representing Palestinian citizens, who make up approximately 20 percent of the Israeli population, are among the key actors in the elections.
The Joint List and Ra'am are expected to win a significant number of seats in parliament.
Ra'am leader Mansur Abbas stated that he is open to joining the coalition if the opposition needs support to form a government.
Ra'am joined the coalition led by Naftali Bennett in 2021, becoming the first Arab-led party to become a government partner in Israel.
However, some opposition leaders, including Eisenkot, oppose forming a coalition with Palestinian parties.
4. MINORITY GOVERNMENT OPTION MAY COME TO THE AGENDA
If no political bloc can obtain an absolute majority in the parliament after the elections, the minority government option may come to the fore.
In such a case, the government may serve with external support from parties that do not participate in the coalition.
The Joint List, formed by Palestinian parties, announced that it could provide external support to an anti-Netanyahu government under certain conditions.
However, such a government's dependence on foreign support for votes of confidence and major bills could increase the risk of political instability.
5. A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT CAN BE ESTABLISHED
Another option that may emerge after the elections is a national unity coalition in which different political blocs take part in the same government.
Similar governments have been established in Israel in the past during periods of war, security crisis and political gridlock.
Netanyahu and Benny Gantz formed a unity government after long political uncertainty in 2020.
However, the coalition in question dissolved before the end of a year.
Gantz also participated in the wartime emergency government established after the October 7, 2023 attacks.
6. THE PRIME MINISTER'S DUTY MAY BE PERFORMED ON A ROTATORY BASIS
One of the models that have been implemented in Israel in the past is that coalition partners assume the role of prime minister alternately for certain periods of time.
Netanyahu and Gantz reached an agreement to this effect in 2020, but the government was dissolved before Gantz took over.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid also made a similar agreement in 2021.
After the Bennett government lost its majority in parliament, Lapid took over as interim prime minister in 2022.
A similar power-sharing agreement is among the possibilities after the elections.
7. A DIFFERENT PRIME MINISTER MAY EMERGE FROM THE SAME POLITICAL BLOCK
If coalition talks are blocked, political parties may agree on a name other than Netanyahu or the leading leaders of the opposition.
Since the majority support in the parliament is decisive in determining the prime minister in Israel, it is possible for a different member of parliament from the same political bloc to form the government.
This scenario may depend on the attitude of political actors, especially those who oppose Netanyahu's premiership but are open to forming a coalition with right-wing parties.
8. IF A GOVERNMENT CANNOT BE FORMED, RE-ELECTIONS MAY BE HELD
If no political leader in Israel can secure sufficient parliamentary support, the country may hold new elections.
Israel held five general elections between 2019 and 2022 as political parties had difficulty forming a stable government.
If a similar political deadlock occurs, Netanyahu can continue his duty as interim prime minister until the new government takes office.
Recent polls in Israel reveal that the election outcome does not depend solely on the rivalry between Likud and Yashar.
The seats won by far-right, ultra-Orthodox and Palestinian parties could be decisive in the talks to form a government.
Israel's political future will depend on the results of the ballot box as well as the alliances that can be formed after the election.
