While Israel's latest attack in Syria was considered as a new breaking point in the power struggle in the region, it was noteworthy that Tel Aviv sent clear messages to Ankara. Israel, which opposes the change in the military balance in Syria, directly brought Turkey's presence in the region and possible military deployments to the agenda, resulting in comments that the tension between the two countries had moved to a different dimension.
The use of the expressions "We took the risk of conflict with Türkiye" in the Israeli press increased the question marks regarding the upcoming period on the Ankara-Tel Aviv line. So what is the real goal of Israel's move in Syria? How can Türkiye respond to this clear message? How strong is the possibility that diplomatic channels will be replaced by a direct power struggle in the region? Is Israel's latest step a harbinger of a broader regional showdown over Syria?
Successive moves in Syria and messages from Israel directly targeting Ankara... While tensions are rising in the region, 'How remote is the possibility of hot contact between Türkiye and Israel now?' Experts evaluated the question to Milliyet.com.tr. Here's the behind-the-scenes look at Israel's move, Ankara's possible response, and clues about how the balance of power in the region may change...
ISRAEL TARGETED Türkiye: 'THE SILENCE WAS BREAKED, WE RISKED CONFLICT'
Israel carried out 8 attacks on the Abu Zuhur Military Airport in northern Syria. Following the attack, the Israeli Prime Ministry made a statement targeting Turkey's possible military presence in Syria. Comments came to the fore in the Israeli press that the attack was a move that risked conflict with Türkiye. It was stated in the news that Tel Aviv is concerned about Turkey's deployment of air defense systems, UAVs and other military elements in Syria.
Speaking to Channel 13, an Israeli official said that an open war with the Turkish army was not desired, but the risk of conflict with the attack seemed to be taken. In addition, the news pointed out that Tel Aviv is worried about two main issues regarding Ankara and said, "The presence of a Turkish base in Syria is a clear signal to prevent Israel from acting freely in Syria. Our second concern is the Turkish navy. With the number of aircraft carriers and more than 12 submarines, they cannot be underestimated." "The last thing we need is an open war with the Turkish army. However, we seem to be taking the risk of conflict with this move."
In its news titled "Israel broke its silence and targeted Turkey", Tel Aviv-based Maariv claimed, "The military airport, which is at a critical point in Syria, is 70-80 kilometers from the Turkish border. It is thought that there are Turkish Forces in the region. Considering the recent bilateral relations on the Ankara-Damascus line, Israel had to make a move now."
Other news in the Israeli press claimed that the expansion of Turkey's presence in Syria could lead to the deployment of air defense systems, UAVs and other military equipment to the region. It was claimed that Israel wanted to send a message to Ankara and Damascus with the attack that it would not allow the military balance in Syria to change.
'A REAL RISK OF DIRECT CONFLICT'
US Ambassador to Türkiye and Special Representative for Syria Tom Barrack said that the attack carries the risk of rapidly escalating into a direct military conflict between Israel, Türkiye and Syria. Barrack stated that since Turkish forces did not know that Israeli planes were going to the base, they might think that they were under attack and remove the warplanes, and that the incident was serious and worrying.
AFTER ISRAEL'S MOVE IN SYRIA, IS A HOT CONTACT WITH ANKARA BECOME INEVITABLE?
So, has Israel's last step in Syria opened the door to a new era that will change the balances on the Ankara-Tel Aviv line? Terrorism and Security Expert Coşkun Başbuğ evaluated where the tension in the region could evolve. Stating that Israel's field of action in Lebanon and Iran has narrowed, Coşkun Başbuğ stated that Syria has become the only geography left for Tel Aviv to spread the war to the region.
Başbuğ said that Israel had previously sabotaged the process through Lebanon and that its attacks made diplomacy meaningless. However, stating that the US's attitude towards Israel regarding Lebanon has changed following the latest developments, Başbuğ argued that attacks on Lebanon without US approval were banned and the powers of Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, were limited.
Stating that the USA does not allow an attack on Israel in the field of Iran, Başbuğ said that for this reason, Syria is all that is left for Israel to expand the regional war.
Başbuğ stated that his assessment that there might be activity in Syria last week was based on this possibility and said, "Unfortunately, that possibility has come true."
“AMERICA IS THE ONLY POWER THAT CAN STOP THE ATTACK”
Stating that the USA should intervene after the attack in Syria, Başbuğ said that the contact between Ankara and Washington has become critical. Başbuğ stated that the USA should restrain Israel and stop moves that sabotage the process, and said that steps in this direction could be seen in the coming hours.
According to Başbuğ, the most important obstacle to stopping the attack in the region will be the attitude of the USA. Başbuğ said, "In this sense, there is only one geography left for Israel to spread the war to the region: Syria. I stated last week that there might be a movement in Syria. What I meant was these days. I said this because there is such a possibility due to the realities of the field that I mentioned. Unfortunately, that possibility has come true. In this case, is Ankara and America's contact necessary? Yes, definitely. America needs to step in immediately, restrain Israel in some way and stop Israel from sabotaging the process. America also needs to take steps in this direction in the coming days." "We can see it in hours," he said.
TURKEY'S MOVE
Stating that Ankara's priority should be diplomacy after Israel's clear messages towards Turkey, Başbuğ said that the way to achieve this is by giving harsh messages to Israel and establishing contact with the USA.
Arguing that Turkey will not be involved in the game that Tel Aviv is thought to have set up by directly intervening in Israel, Başbuğ claimed that Israel wants to create a swamp in Syria, draw Turkey into this process and start a regional war over Syria that it could not start in other areas.
Başbuğ stated that Turkey knows about this plan and will not fall into the trap, and that Ankara will want to put pressure on Israel through Washington.
Stating that Turkey will give a message to the USA that the two countries may come face to face in case of a conflict in the region, Başbuğ stated that such a situation could seriously affect the existing alliance relations.
"THEY WANT TO TRAP TURKEY"
Speaking about whether Israel's actions against Turkey could be considered as preparations for a major regional war, Başbuğ argued that Tel Aviv had set a trap to draw Turkey directly into the process.
Stating that Turkey has seen this plan from the beginning, Başbuğ stated that Ankara does not want a large-scale regional war. Stating that Turkey would not be a part of such a war even if Israel had a goal in this direction, Başbuğ said, "Türkiye is in contact with its interlocutor, not with Israel, and is doing the right thing."
However, emphasizing that Turkey's patience has a limit, Başbuğ stated that Israel is pushing this limit and that Ankara is putting pressure on the forces that have influence on Israel in order to stop Israel.
IF TENSION GROWS, BALANCES MAY CHANGE
Stating that the tension between Israel and Turkey reaching the point of conflict would seriously change the balance of power in the region, Başbuğ said that in such a situation, if the USA had to support Israel, it would face the risk of confrontation with Turkey. However, Başbuğ stated that he did not think that the USA would take such a risk and claimed that there was a large-scale war and cold war between Washington and Tel Aviv. He argued that US support for Israel is no longer at the same level and that Israel is becoming increasingly isolated.
Başbuğ, US Vice President J.D. He also evaluated Vance's words towards Israel, "We are the only ally left, you will lose us too" within the context of this picture.
Başbuğ claimed that if the crisis between Israel and Turkey escalates, Tel Aviv would become even more isolated and could suffer a heavy military blow against Turkey, and said that the USA would want to reduce the tension in the region before such a point is reached.
"BACK DOOR DIPLOMACY IS NOT OVER, IT STARTS NOW"
Stating that diplomatic channels in the region have not been completely closed, on the contrary, a critical period has entered, Başbuğ said, "Backdoor diplomacy is not over. It will never end. The real beginning is now."
Stating that Turkey continued its contacts with the USA after Israel's attacks, Başbuğ said that the necessary warnings and requests for support were conveyed about what should be done regarding Syria.
Stating that the actors in the region will be informed about the trap allegedly set by Israel, Başbuğ stated that the backdoor diplomacy carried out by Turkey will continue uninterrupted. According to Başbuğ, the most important way out for Türkiye in the coming period will be these diplomatic contacts.
"Türkiye WILL STRENGTHEN THE EQUATION THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED FOR YEARS"
Stating that Israel's latest move in Syria increases the possibility of hot contact on the Ankara-Tel Aviv line, Dr. Faculty Member Ufuk Necat Taşçı argued that Israel has not recognized any red lines in ethical, legal, political and military terms lately.
Taşçı said that although Netanyahu presented a map showing Turkey's presence in Syria during his visit to the USA, it was also important that he received a response from Washington that Turkey was in Syria within the framework of an official invitation. Stating that it is remarkable that Israel continues its attacks despite this, Taşçı argued that Netanyahu is becoming more and more stuck politically.
"THE MECCA AGREEMENT IS A NEW POLITICAL TABLE FOR ISRAEL"
Stating that the problems within Likud, the possibility of Netanyahu losing the election and the Mecca Agreement signed between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan created a new political picture for Israel, Taşçı suggested that Netanyahu may need a new "enemy" to continue the chaos and war in the region.
Taşçı said that if Israel pushes Turkey's patience further, not only the possibility of a hot conflict may arise, but also a situation in which some actors, including the USA, may approach Turkey positively to balance Israel. Stating that Turkey is not looking for a new and sudden move in the face of Israel's open threat, Taşçı said that Ankara has long established a security and diplomacy architecture against both Israel and other threats in the region.
Evaluating the Mecca Agreement as one of the last links of this process, Taşçı argued that Turkey has built not only the Steel Dome in the defense industry, but also a political "steel dome" extending from the Balkans to the Black Sea, from the Eastern Mediterranean to North Africa, from the Horn of Africa to the Gulf.
Stating that Turkey has a strong institutional memory in diplomacy and foreign policy, Taşçı stated that for this reason, Ankara will focus on strengthening the new geopolitical equation it has created over the years, rather than just reacting instantly to Israel's latest move.
Drawing attention to the Syrian example, Taşçı recalled a process in the past in which Turkey achieved results in a short time after waiting for the right time for a long time, and said, "I think Turkey turned its biggest moves into a diplomatic output with the Mecca Agreement."
"ISRAEL WILL NO LONGER FIGHT ON A SINGLE FRONT"
Stating that the discomfort caused by the Mecca Agreement for Israel is clear, Taşçı said that Turkey is trying to create an alternative third way for Muslim countries, different from the "Western or socialist dictators" dilemma created in the past.
According to Taşçı, Israel and Iran were among the countries that benefited most from the status quo and the chaos that occurred after the Arab Spring. However, arguing that regional balances have changed today, Taşçı stated that there is no conjuncture in which Israel can normalize its relations with the countries in the region in the short and medium term.
Drawing attention to the importance of the Mecca Agreement, Taşçı stated that Israel will no longer be faced only with Turkey in a possible attack against Turkey. Taşçı said that the critical question is whether Netanyahu will still risk entering into a real war with Türkiye and the region.
Arguing that Netanyahu is seriously worn out both in his own party and the public, as well as in the international arena, Taşçı evaluated that Netanyahu, who wants to maintain his political power, could take much more risky steps.
"A NEW BALANCE IS BEING FORMED"
Stating that diplomatic channels have not ended in the region, Taşçı said that on the contrary, the approach of many actors, including the USA, towards balancing Israel has become stronger.
Arguing that we have entered a period in which the USA sees its relations with Turkey as more important and beneficial than Israel for the first time in its history, Taşçı stated that the belief that Israel should be balanced has increased in the international community.
Stating that there is an increase in the number of actors around the world who would be open to a power that would balance Israel, led by Turkey, Taşçı said that after Netanyahu, it would take a long time for Israel to repair its relations with the world, especially with the countries in the region.
Taşçı stated that the need to balance Israel on a regional and global scale may come to the fore more strongly, especially if Israel's attacks and provocations continue until October 27.
Arguing that Netanyahu has turned into a figure who can even burn his own country in order to protect his political future, Taşçı said that this situation also disturbs the USA. Stating that Israel could not be stopped in Syria and Gaza despite the efforts of the USA, Taşçı evaluated that the red line drawn against Israel in Syria could reach a point that would have more severe consequences for Tel Aviv.
