MİLLİYET.COM.TR / As the tension in the Middle East expands to a new line, this time all eyes are on the Horn of Africa.
A remarkable analysis published in Israel-based Nziv claimed that the increasingly stronger military presence of Türkiye and Egypt in the region creates a new equation that could change Israel's calculations.
'STRATEGIC LINE'
While the analysis drew attention to Ankara's military and technological capacity in the region and Cairo's increasing military presence, it was argued that the two countries gaining power in the same strategic field created a new security issue for Israel.
In this new equation, the critical country is Somalia. Egypt's preparation for military deployment in Somalia, Türkiye's strong military presence in Mogadishu and its space project on the Indian Ocean coast intersect on the same strategic line with the steps taken by Israel through Somaliland.
'MILITARY BUILDING FROM EGYPT'
According to the analysis, local sources in Somalia claimed that Egypt took over and re-equipped some existing military areas in preparation for deploying military forces to the country.
Defense relations between Cairo and Mogadishu have strengthened rapidly in recent times. While the two countries signed a defense and military cooperation agreement in 2024, Egypt began to provide military equipment and weapons support to Somalia. Cairo also announced that it will contribute troops to the African Union's new peacekeeping mission in Somalia, AUSSOM.
Behind Egypt's move is not only Somalia's security. Cairo has long had a serious dispute with Addis Ababa over the waters of the Nile and Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam. Ethiopia's quest for access to the Red Sea and the agreements it made with Somaliland added a new strategic dimension to the Egypt-Somalia rapprochement.
In the Nziv analysis, it was claimed that Egypt's presence in Somalia also aimed to create a strategic balance against Ethiopia.
'NEW DIMENSION IN THE POWER STRUGGLE'
According to Nziv, the development that further complicated the balances in the region was Israel's Somaliland decision.
Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as an independent state in December 2025. While the Somali administration reacted harshly to the decision, Türkiye and Egypt continued their support for Somalia's territorial integrity.
Somaliland's location on the Gulf of Aden is of strategic importance due to its maritime trade routes in the region and the Red Sea connection. Israel's establishment of a new partnership in this region has directly taken the power struggle in the Horn of Africa to a new dimension.
Türkiye'S POWER IS AT ISRAEL'S ACCOUNT
According to the analysis, one of the most striking actors in the equation is Turkey, and "Ankara's TURKSOM military base in Mogadishu stands out as one of Türkiye's most important overseas defense centers. While the Turkish Armed Forces contribute to the training of Somali security forces here, defense relations between Ankara and Mogadishu are gradually expanding in the fields of maritime security and military cooperation."
It was also noted that Turkey has increased its presence in the Indian Ocean with comprehensive agreements to strengthen Somalia's maritime security, and said, "Ankara's move in Somalia is not limited to military capacity alone. It is reported that Türkiye is building a space launch facility in the Vahsheikh region, approximately 70 kilometers north of Mogadishu. The approximately 350 million dollar project is considered one of the important parts of Türkiye's goal of independent access to space."
'SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE'
In the analysis, which emphasized the location of the facility close to the equator, it was evaluated that "It provides a significant geographical advantage to Türkiye. Launches carried out from regions close to the equator can provide advantages in terms of fuel and carrying capacity, thanks to the greater use of the Earth's rotation speed."
'ANKARA AND CAIRO ARE IN THE SAME EQUATION'
The main point that the Nziv analysis draws attention to is that the increasing presence of Türkiye and Egypt in different areas in Somalia meet in the same strategic equation.
"While Turkey is creating a long-term structure in the region with its capacity in military training, defense technologies, maritime security and space, Egypt is preparing to deploy more land forces and soldiers. Thus, Ankara's technology and defense capacity and Cairo's military power intersect in the same field in Somalia's security equation," the analysis said.
'MUST BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY'
In the analysis of Israel-based Nziv, it was argued that the increasing presence of Türkiye and Egypt in Somalia should be closely monitored in terms of the new equation created by Israel over Somaliland.
According to the analysis, the main question for Israel is how to preserve the new relationship with Somaliland and at the same time avoid direct tension with Cairo.
On the other hand, Türkiye's presence in Somalia draws attention not only in terms of today's military balance but also in terms of long-term technology and defense capacity.
Thus, the Horn of Africa goes beyond a regional security area and turns into a strategic line connecting the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.
'NEW FRONT'
This changing equation lies at the basis of the "new front" emphasis in the analysis: Türkiye's military and technological infrastructure, which it has been building step by step in Somalia for years, and Egypt's new military move intersect in the same geography with the steps taken by Israel through Somaliland.
While the balance of power in the region is being reshaped, Ankara's long-term presence and increasing strategic capacity in Somalia stand out as one of the most striking elements of the calculation in the Horn of Africa.
