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BackHere are the taxes to be paid in 2027
Here are the taxes to be paid in 2027
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Habertürk Ekonomi1 hour agoBusiness2 min readTürkiyeView original

Here are the taxes to be paid in 2027

Quick Look

  • The 2027 central government budget draft submitted to the Turkish Grand National Assembly predicts that, compared to 2007, budget revenues will be 23 trillion 408 billion liras, expenses will be 27 trillion 276.1 billion liras and the budget deficit will be 3 trillion 868.1 billion liras.
  • For 2026, revenues are expected to be 17 trillion 28.2 billion, expenses to be 19 trillion 660.1 billion and the deficit to be 2 trillion 631.9 billion lira.
  • The egalitarian mobile system effect and tax estimates regarding fuel prices on SCT revenues are detailed.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

The budget draft shows a large increase in revenues and expenses compared to 2007. The effect of the mobile system on fuel prices on SCT revenues is emphasized.

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In the 2027 central government budget submitted to the Turkish Grand National Assembly, it is envisaged that budget revenues will be 23 trillion 408 billion liras, expenses will be 27 trillion 276.1 billion liras, and the budget will have a deficit of 3 trillion 868.1 billion liras in 2007. In 2026, budget revenues are expected to be 17 trillion 28.2 billion liras, budget expenditures are expected to be 19 trillion 660.1 billion liras, and the budget deficit is expected to be 2 trillion 631.9 billion liras.

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While 22 trillion 139.3 billion lira gross tax revenue will be generated in 2027, 2 trillion 233.3 billion lira of this will be rejected and refunded. Net tax revenue will be 19 trillion 906 billion liras.

IF THE MARKET NORMALIZES, FUEL SCT WILL INCREASE

Special consumption tax (SCT) revenues, which were 2 trillion 40 billion liras in 2025, were predicted to increase to 2 trillion 549.3 billion liras in 2026, but the realization is expected to remain at 2 trillion 140 billion liras. SCT revenues will increase only by 49 percent in 2026. It is expected to reach 3 trillion 334.7 billion lira in 2027, with an increase of 55.8 percent.

The Ecel mobile system, which was launched in March to prevent the excessive increase in fuel prices after the war that started with the US and Israel's attack on Iran, was effective in the SCT revenues being below expectations in 2026. With this system, the state largely gave up taxes on fuel.

While SCT revenues from oil and natural gas are expected to be 662.1 billion lira in 2026, the realization is expected to remain at 321.2 billion lira due to mobile tax subsidies. In other words, 205.8 billion lira of taxes were waived with the Ecel mobile system. Considering the VAT, which is 20 percent of the Special Consumption Tax amount, the amount of tax given up by the state due to Ezel Mobil will reach 247 billion lira.

SCT revenues from oil and natural gas were 527.1 billion lira in 2025. Accordingly, tax revenue decreased by 39 percent in 2026.

If normalization is achieved in international markets, SCT revenues from oil and natural gas are expected to increase by 171 percent and reach 870.6 billion lira in 2027.

This year, sales in the automotive industry are quite low. This situation was also reflected in the SCT revenues paid on the purchase of new vehicles produced domestically or imported. Motor vehicles SCT, which is expected to generate 960 billion lira in 2026, remained at 825.8 billion lira. Next year, an income of 1 trillion 151.2 billion liras is expected, with an increase of 39.4 percent.

In 2027, SCT revenues from alcoholic beverages and tobacco are expected to increase by 31.8 percent and 32.5 percent, respectively. There is no unusual increase in taxes on these two items.

EMPLOYEE TAXES DOUBLE THE COMPANIES' TAXES

Next year, income tax revenue of 5 trillion 584.4 billion lira and corporate tax revenue of 2 trillion 371.3 billion lira are expected. It is estimated that 5.2 trillion lira will be generated from income tax withholding next year. Almost all of this amount consists of taxes deducted from employees' wages.

It was predicted that income tax withholding revenues would reach 3.3 trillion liras in the 2026 budget, an increase of 24 percent compared to last year. However, the realization is expected to be 3.9 trillion lira, an increase of 45.6 percent. An increase of 34.3 percent is expected in 2027, compared to this year's realization estimate.

Looking at the course of income tax withholding revenues since 2022, it is seen that they will increase by 93.1 percent in 2023, 123 percent in 2024 and 84.4 percent in 2025 compared to the previous year. Considering that annual inflation is 64.77 percent in 2023, 44.38 percent in 2024 and 30.89 percent in 2025, it seems that the tax deducted from employees' wages is well above inflation.

The corporate tax deducted from companies' earnings will increase by 34.4 percent next year, according to the 2026 realization estimate, reaching 2 trillion 371.3 billion liras. The tax paid by companies is approximately half of the tax paid by employees.

MOTOR VEHICLE TAX WILL SLOW DOWN IN 2026

The motor vehicle tax paid by vehicle owners every year is projected to be 138.3 billion lira in 2026. However, the realization is expected to remain at 131.8 billion lira. The increase rate compared to last year remained at 23.6 percent. It is expected to increase by 33.3 percent and reach 175.7 billion lira next year.

DOMESTIC VAT WILL INCREASE BY 31.8 PERCENT

The domestic value added tax applied to goods and services produced in Turkey was in line with budget expectations with 3 trillion 601.4 billion lira this year. It is expected to reach 4 trillion 746.1 billion lira next year, with an increase of 31.8 percent compared to this year.

VAT revenues from imported goods are expected to increase by 29.4 percent to 2 trillion 893.9 billion lira.

NON-VALUE TAX ON VALUABLE HOUSING

Although there was a 373 percent increase in the valuable housing tax, which was introduced to collect higher taxes from high-value residences, this year, the total tax collected remained only 555 million liras. It is expected to generate 780 million liras of revenue next year, with an increase of 40.6 percent.

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • SCT revenues will be 3 trillion 334.7 billion lira in 2027

    Likely · Within years

  • Income tax withholding will be 3.9 trillion lira in 2027

    Likely · Within years

Open Questions

  • How will the budget deficit be financed?
  • What will be the duration and aftermath of the Ešel mobile system?
  • How consistent are tax forecasts with actual industry performance?

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This article was originally published by Habertürk Ekonomi.

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