Italy's population projected to shrink by nearly 4 million by 2050, ISTAT warns
Quick Look
Italy's population will decline from 58.9 million in 2025 to 55 million by 2050 and 45.8 million by 2080 due to falling birth rates and rising deaths, ISTAT reported, posing challenges to the economy and welfare system as the elderly share rises to 34.5% by 2050; Italy also extended a suspension of Schengen border rules with Spain for 15 days over migrant influx into Ceuta.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Italy has experienced declining birth rates since 2008, with births falling to around 355,000 last year — the lowest since unification in 1861 — while deaths have risen due to an aging population. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made boosting the birth rate a government priority upon taking office in 2022, but results have been limited.
Italy's population will shrink by almost 4 million by 2050, undermining the sustainability of its economy and welfare system as the proportion of elderly people increases, national statistics bureau ISTAT warned on Monday.
In new demographic projections extending to 2080, ISTAT said Italy's resident population would fall to 55 million in 2050 from 58.9 million at the start of 2025, before dropping to 45.8 million by 2080.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said when she took office in 2022 that boosting the birth rate would be a government priority, but her efforts have produced scant results.
Births have declined steadily since 2008 and fell last year to around 355,000, the lowest number since Italy's unification in 1861, while deaths have risen as the population ages.
ISTAT said annual births would now remain broadly stable until 2030, before falling to 335,000 by 2050.
Deaths were projected to rise from about 652,000 last year to a peak of 869,000 in 2058 as Italy's large post-war baby boom generation reaches old age.
The share of Italians aged 65 or over is expected to jump to 34.5% in 2050 from 24.7% in 2025, while the proportion of people of working age, defined as 15 to 64 years old, will fall to 55.3% from 63.4%.
A shrinking pool of workers and a surging number of pensioners will pose "new challenges to the economic system and welfare," ISTAT noted.
The demographic decline will be uneven across the country. Poorer southern Italy was forecast to suffer the steepest losses, with its population falling from 19.7 million in 2025 to 16.7 million in 2050, while central and northern regions will see a more modest decline.
Meanwhile Italy said it will extend for a further 15 days a suspension of the European Union's border-free arrangements with Spain which was due to expire on Monday, a government statement said.
Rome suspended the Schengen arrangements with Madrid for one month on July 31, in response to a mass influx of migrants into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta from neighbouring Morocco.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Italy's annual births will fall to 335,000 by 2050
Likely · Within years
Deaths in Italy will peak at 869,000 in 2058
Likely · Within years
The share of Italians aged 65 or over will reach 34.5% by 2050
Likely · Within years
Open Questions
- What specific policies has the Italian government implemented to boost the birth rate, and why have they produced scant results?
- How will the uneven demographic decline between southern and northern Italy affect regional economic disparities?
- What are the long-term economic projections for Italy's GDP and pension system sustainability under these demographic trends?
