[ITmedia Mobile] Docomo has revised its earnings forecast upward, the chances of winning with the strong performance of “Docomo MAX” and “rate increase”, and what are the remaining network issues?

At NTT and Docomo's financial results briefings announced on November 4th, the expected impact of the rate increase to be implemented on December 1st was revealed. On December 1st, Docomo will increase the price of existing price plans by up to 550 yen, increase the data capacity of ahamo, change to a tiered system, and raise the price by 165 yen. Docomo mini2 is also planned to be introduced as a small-capacity rate plan.

In addition to these price increases, Docomo has upwardly revised its full-year earnings forecast due to the strong user acquisition of its current rate plan, Docomo MAX. On the other hand, as profits increase, we will increase investment in network improvements and accelerate the expansion of 5G base stations and 5G SA. Yoshiaki Maeda, President and Representative Director, explained this policy.

Docomo MAX's ARPU increases due to strong performance, upward revision due to price increase

Docomo will start raising prices from December 1st, but just before that, in the second quarter (July to September), its business performance has begun to improve. The reason cited is that Docomo MAX is doing well. As of the second quarter, the number of subscribers reached 4.69 million, and on October 27th, it exceeded the 2026 target of 5 million. The company also announced an upward revision of its full-year target to 6 million contracts.

Docomo MAX comes with a benefit that allows you to use up to two services for free each month from DAZN, Lemino, d Anime Store, and NBA Docomo. Users can choose which services to use for free on a monthly basis. As a result of this sense of value, ``the number of applications for selectable benefits has reached 5.89 million (as of 4.69 million contracts)'' (Mr. Maeda), indicating that the service is actually being used.

Docomo MAX's pricing is higher than other plans, so if the number of subscribers increases, ``this will lead to an increase in ARPU (average revenue per user).'' In fact, ARPU was 3,960 yen in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, one year ago, and rose to 4,040 yen in the second quarter of 2026, recovering to exceed the 4,000 yen in fiscal 2023. Because Docomo MAX contracts are increasing faster than expected, the full-year ARPU forecast has been revised upward from 4,010 yen to 4,040 yen.

Mobile communication service revenue decreased by 4.6 billion yen from the same period last year, so although it has not yet fully recovered, it is true that a reversal trend is becoming clear. Furthermore, on December 1st, the price will be increased as mentioned above. This price increase also includes past rate plans for which new acceptance has ended, and the impact is significant.

Mr. Maeda said, ``There are things you won't know until you start,'' but added, ``We will see an increase in sales for the entire year next year, but it will be in the tens of billions of yen.'' Although the effects of this increase in sales were ``partially factored in'' in the company's business results from the third quarter including December onwards (same), it appears that the effects are even greater than that. As a result, the company announced an upward revision to the same forecast, ``due to strong current business performance combined with the rate review (full-year forecast), sales and profits will increase by 20 billion yen.''

Although there are harsh opinions on the price increase of existing plans, there is a positive response to the aamo revision

Regarding the rate increase, the company said, ``We have received some critical feedback as the price of existing plans will increase significantly.'' Previous price plans with unlimited data, such as eximo and Gigaho, will have a price increase of 550 yen, so it seems that users' reviews are not positive about this.

On the other hand, ahamo, which increases data capacity by 10GB but limits the price increase to 165 yen and introduces a tiered system, has received a positive response, with ``people saying that it increases convenience while maintaining a certain level of simplicity.''

In addition, the Docomo mini 2, which has introduced ``Minna Docomo Wari'' and has a lower price after the discount is applied than the current ``Docomo mini'' and has increased data capacity, ``is being appreciated for its family-friendly discounts, and we have also received feedback from channels (retailers such as Docomo Shops).'' Mr. Maeda says, ``We want to move forward with these price plans in a way that appeals to customers.''

Docomo is placing emphasis on acquiring MNP in order to strengthen its customer base. No matter how much ARPU goes up, if more users end up leaving Docomo, raising prices will be putting the cart before the horse. Of particular importance is ahamo, which accounts for ``more than half of all new contracts'' (same). That is why we are making revisions to limit the range of price increases and place more emphasis on improving convenience.

Although the number of mobile phone subscribers continues to decline due to major cancellations of corporate voice calling modules and cancellations due to death, MNP has remained positive for four consecutive quarters. This is the result of ``strengthening the sales force itself'' under the Maeda system. Mr. Maeda exuded confidence, saying, ``It's possible to get a certain number if you spend money, but the level of improvement is not just in spending money, but also in devising measures and where and how they are deployed.''

One focus will be on whether they can maintain this competitiveness with the increased prices from December 1st. Current rate plans such as ahamo and Docomo mini2 either limit price increases or, in some cases, reduce prices, so acquisitions themselves will not decrease. On the other hand, it will also be important to consider how to avoid being taken over by other companies and migrate users of existing rate plans whose prices will increase significantly to new rate plans.