Kalshi Traders See Low Odds for US Government Stake in OpenAI, Higher Odds for Tech Firms
Quick Look
- Kalshi traders are betting on low probabilities for the US government taking a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic this year, with odds under 30%.
- However, they see higher chances for stakes in quantum computing firms Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, and semiconductor manufacturer GlobalFoundries, with odds over 60%.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Kalshi traders are assessing the likelihood of the US government taking equity stakes in various technology companies this year, with differing probabilities assigned to AI firms versus quantum computing and semiconductor manufacturers.
While OpenAI reportedly proposed giving the Trump administration a stake in the company, Kalshi traders see long odds that such a deal could occur this year.
Just last week the Financial Times reported that the artificial intelligence giant proposed granting the U.S. government a 5% stake. However, Kalshi traders see odds of less than 30% that the U.S. government could take a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic.
The Kalshi event asks which companies will the U.S. government take a stake in this year, and will be resolved once verified by the government, news outlets or official filings.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman first shared with the Trump administration the idea of offering the government a stake back in 2025, a source familiar with the matter told CNBC last month. The source asked not to be named because the details are confidential.
Last week President Donald Trump avoided answering CNBC's question on the proposed OpenAI stake. Instead, he discussed the 10% stake the government took in Intel last summer.
"Intel came in. They had a problem," Trump said. "I said, 'I can solve your problem, but I want 10% of the company.'"
Kalshi traders see odds well over 60% that the government could take a stake this year in quantum computing plays Rigetti Computing or D-Wave Quantum , as well as in semiconductor manufacturer GlobalFoundries .
In May, the U.S. Commerce Department said it would award $2 billion in grants to nine firms in the quantum computing space. The National Institute of Standards and Technology said it would take a minority, non-controlling stake in each company. Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum and GlobalFoundries were among the companies.
The Wall Street Journal also reported in May, citing people familiar with the matter, that the Trump administration might establish deals with several private-sector drone companies such as Performance Drone Works and Neros Technologies. Some of these deals could also entail equity stakes, some of the people told the Journal.
Both Performance Drone Works and Neros Technologies are also on the Kalshi contract regarding government stakes. Traders see just over a 50% likelihood the government could take a stake in the former, and less than 40% odds that it'll take a stake in the latter.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
US government takes a stake in Rigetti Computing or D-Wave Quantum this year.
Very likely
US government takes a stake in GlobalFoundries this year.
Very likely
Open Questions
- Will the US government confirm any of these potential stake acquisitions?
- What are the specific criteria for the government taking stakes in companies?
- What is the strategic rationale behind potential government stakes in these specific tech firms?
