As the fourth year of the Russia-Ukraine war passes, the nature of the war in the Black Sea is changing. Ports, energy facilities and commercial ships hundreds of kilometers away from the front line are increasingly becoming targets of unmanned aerial and marine vehicles.
What this change means for Türkiye is not only the escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine. The shooting of ships belonging to Turkish companies, the injury of Turkish sailors and, finally, the death of a Turkish citizen pose an increasingly difficult question for Ankara: To what extent can the Black Sea, where Turkey managed to stay out of the war, remain safe for Turkish citizens and commercial interests?
COMMERCIAL SHIPS ARE THE TARGET
In recent months, Ukraine has significantly expanded its operations against Russia's logistics capacity in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
According to the Financial Times, Ukrainian forces targeted more than 110 civilian ships with drones in the Sea of Azov between July 6 and 14 alone. The aim of the operations, which included tankers, cargo ships and auxiliary ships, was to disrupt Russia's fuel and logistics networks.
However, the expansion of the operational area makes the border between military targets and commercial shipping increasingly risky.
According to another report by the Financial Times, Washington brought this risk directly to Kiev's agenda at the point where it touched its own economic interests. On July 31, US Vice President JD Vance asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy not to target tankers using the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal in Novorossiysk.
Washington was concerned that the attacks would destabilize the global oil market and affect the interests of American companies such as Chevron and ExxonMobil. Kiev then agreed not to target CPC infrastructure and non-Russian ships meeting certain conditions. A US official also confirmed to Reuters that Washington had warned Ukraine to stop attacks on non-Russian ships.
This example is important. Because it shows that the borders of Ukraine's naval war can be redrawn with diplomatic intervention when the national and economic interests of its allies are at stake.
FIRST NECIBE, THEN URAL
The most serious case for Türkiye occurred in August.
The Turkish-owned, San Marino-flagged cargo ship named Necibe was attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles while it was about to load approximately 20 thousand tons of wheat in Russia's Tuapse Port on August 18. 18 sailors on the ship were evacuated and taken to the Ro-Ro ship named Ural, belonging to the Turkish company. Maritime sources attribute the attack to Ukraine.
But it didn't end there.
Three days later, on August 21, Ural was also attacked by a drone off the coast of Novorossiysk. In the attack in which eight people were injured, 47-year-old Turkish chef İlker Lazoğlu, who survived the first attack in Necibe, lost his life. Ural reached Samsun the next day with Lazoğlu's body and the wounded sailors.
This incident strikingly reveals the point at which the security problem in the Black Sea has reached Turkey: A Turkish sailor is rescued from the first ship that was attacked, and the second commercial ship he was evacuated from is hit three days later and this time he loses his life.
Moreover, Necibe was not alone. According to maritime sources, at least five ships trading grain around Novorossiysk and Tuapse were targeted with unmanned aerial vehicles on August 17-18.
COLD CONDOLENCE FROM KIEV
Following the death of İlker Lazoğlu, Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi confirmed that Turkish citizens also lost their lives in the attacks in the Black Sea and expressed his condolences to the families.
Tykhyi announced that they are ready to contact and coordinate with Türkiye in order to clarify the circumstances of the events and ensure the security of civilian maritime transportation.
However, Ukraine's statement did not claim responsibility for the attacks. While Tykhyi did not specify who carried out the attacks, he placed the responsibility for the security crisis in the Black Sea on Russia.
Kiev's justification for targeting Russia's military and economic capabilities can be understood within the logic of the war itself. However, this justification does not eliminate Ukraine's responsibility for the risks faced by civilian ships and sailors belonging to third countries.
Especially if civilian ships are hit repeatedly in the same operational area.
ANKARA'S ATTITUDE
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that on August 4, the Turkish-owned ships Yaşar and Nadezhda were hit by unmanned aerial vehicles after leaving Novorossiysk, and their crews, including Turkish citizens, were injured.
The expressions used by the Ministry were remarkable. Ankara stated that it was "serious concern about the gradual spread of the Russia-Ukraine war in the Black Sea, affecting civilian ships, despite all our warnings" and warned that if precautions are not taken, the escalation will have multi-dimensional consequences, including food security. However, Türkiye refrained from publicly blaming the attacks directly on Ukraine. Reuters also reported that the perpetrator of the Nadezhda attack could not be independently identified.
During Erdoğan and Zelenskiy's meeting in Istanbul on April 4, deepening security cooperation, sharing the technology and experience Ukraine gained during the war, and joint projects in the field of energy were discussed. For this very reason, the future of Türkiye-Ukraine relations now looks more complicated.
For Ankara, Ukraine is not just a neighboring country at war; It is a partner with areas of cooperation ranging from the defense industry to energy, and the other side of Turkey's mediation role in terms of diplomacy with Russia, but Ukraine's expanding naval operations are increasingly at odds with Turkey's commercial and security interests in the Black Sea.
NATIONAL SECURITY PROBLEM
Reuters reports that as the attacks in the Black Sea intensified, commercial ships began to use nets, water tanks and similar improvised protection methods against unmanned aerial vehicles.
According to The Guardian, 35 ships were hit and 23 sailors lost their lives in attacks in the Black Sea in July alone. The newspaper's figures, based on data from the Turkish Seafarers' Union, made July the deadliest month of the war for sailors.
Last week, President Erdoğan brought up the need for a new mechanism to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea to protect commercial maritime transportation.
Turkey's preservation of its relations with Ukraine and its interests in the Black Sea are not mutually exclusive goals today. However, the transformation of Turkish sailors and commercial ships belonging to Turkish companies into ordinary risk elements of war cannot be an acceptable new normal for Ankara.
Washington's request from Kiev to limit naval operations when its own economic interests are in danger constitutes a remarkable example in this respect.
In this case, the question before Turkey is no longer just to support Ukraine or balance relations with Russia. It is becoming increasingly important where Ankara will draw its own red lines in the Black Sea.
