The EC has a problem with the second SAFE pool. EUR 20 billion to be divided, but few people are willing

The pool available again consists of the previously unused funds, approximately EUR 6 billion resulting from the reduction of Italian loan plans and approximately EUR 11 billion by which Hungary's plans were reduced.

The problem is that the interest in additional loans is much smaller than Brussels initially expected.

As an RMF FM journalist found out, some EU member states have already announced that they are not interested in additional loans. This applies to Italy and Hungary, which scaled back their plans, but also to Spain and Portugal, where program implementation was slow. Another obstacle is budget constraints. Romania, Latvia and Estonia may also not be able to take out larger loans due to the situation of public finances.

As a result, only six or seven Member States can apply for the additional money. And Poland will be key here - we hear in Brussels. Meanwhile, there remains a huge pot to be divided. This presents Brussels with a problem: it must find countries willing to take out additional loans. The EC believes that Poland has such borrowing capacity.

Poland has a dilemma. The government is still hesitant

Meanwhile, in Poland, the final decision to apply for additional SAFE funds has not been made yet. It must be undertaken by the government. After the first prematurely enthusiastic statements about using the second pool, Warsaw is now talking about "dilemmas".

Poland can no longer allocate this additional pool solely for independent domestic purchases, as the deadline for independent projects expired in May. It must prepare joint procurements with the participation of at least one other country, and the Commission is pushing for Ukraine to also participate. Poland, however, is interested in modernizing its own armed forces.

The EC wants to plug Ukraine's budget hole with money from SAFE. Poland wants to support its own industry

Brussels sees the remains of SAFE as an opportunity to support Ukraine's production capabilities and reduce the gap in Ukraine's defense financing in 2027. Unofficially, it is said that Ukraine's financial needs next year may reach approximately EUR 70 billion.

From the Commission's point of view, joint procurement with Ukraine could therefore help achieve two goals at once: using the remaining SAFE money and increasing support for Kiev. However, in Warsaw you can hear that the Ukrainian authorities only want to strengthen their own production capabilities and therefore it is not easy to agree on joint projects with Kiev.

Three years of shopping and another debt. Dilemmas of Warsaw

Another challenge is time. Projects financed from the second SAFE pool will also have to be implemented by 2030. If additional funds are granted only in 2027, only three years will remain for their use. In the case of large arms orders requiring a long production and delivery process, this may be a serious problem. Unofficially, we can already hear that there may be difficulties with the timely completion of contracts from the first recruitment. The government will therefore have to assess whether Poland will be able to prepare and complete subsequent orders on time. However, Brussels does not intend to change the SAFE Regulation.