Kemi Badenoch's fight for the Tories: Between a declaration of war and an image problem

Kemi Badenoch likes to be snappy and aggressive. The Conservative Party leader greeted British Prime Minister Andy Burnham on his first day in Parliament with friendly congratulations and then followed up: "It's only fair not to be so harsh on someone on their first day at work. That's why I'm just going to ask a few simple questions - and I hope the Prime Minister can give a few simple and serious answers." Applause erupted from her fellow Conservatives.

Badenoch has brought their Tories back from the brink. Less than a year ago, the Conservatives were at a low point, with just 16 percent of the population supporting the party. A year later it is only three percentage points more - but something has still changed.

"I'm not interested in polls. They go up, they go down, I stay tuned," Badenoch said in an interview with the BBC in July. It is precisely her personal poll numbers that have given the party a new boost, says Rachel Sylvester, political reporter for The Observer newspaper. "Around a year ago no one knew the name of the Tory leader. Now people recognize her and see her as a very strong woman."

Can Badenoch appeal to the political center?

Badenoch was born in London in 1980 to Nigerian parents. She joined the Conservatives at the age of 25 and entered Parliament for the first time in 2017, then worked in the government of then Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

In 2024 she won the fight for party leadership and became opposition leader. But Badenoch wants more: she wants to see her party back in government. Your current style of politics doesn't make that easy. “She likes to start fights and wants to be seen as a fighter,” says reporter Sylvester. "Sometimes she seems really mean."

But if Badenoch wants to lead a conservative government at some point, she has to show that she can unite the country. “That also means appealing more to the political center, and that is currently their biggest weakness,” said Sylvester. At the moment, the Tories are speaking more to the right-wing fringe, and they are more attracted to the right-wing populist Reform UK party.

Finance and social cuts as key themes

At this year's party conference, Badenoch wants to give the Conservatives new courage. "Stronger Economy, Stronger Country" is the title of the four-day meeting in Birmingham, which begins today. The Tories want to score points with the British with a responsible financial policy, drastic cuts in the social budget, more investments in the defense budget.

“We have to get people out of the welfare system and into work,” said Badenoch in an interview with the BBC. “This is doubly helpful: we no longer have to spend social security money on them, and as employees they finally pay taxes.” That's why, shortly before the party conference, Badenoch also proposed drastic cuts in social welfare for young people. Less carrot, more stick, is the tenor of many commentators.

However, Andy Burnham's government is currently planning its own reform of the youth welfare system, which could make Badenoch's proposals unnecessary in the long term. It is one of several examples of how Badenoch could actually harm the Tories and their current issues, says political observer Sylvester.

Past weighs on Tories

But above all, the party has an image problem, says Sylvester. "The Tories are still very unpopular." This has primarily to do with the previous party leaders and prime ministers of conservative governments: Theresa May, for example, who failed to reach a Brexit deal with the EU, or Liz Truss, who almost led the financial markets to collapse with her announced reforms.

“Kemi Badenoch hasn’t done enough to draw a line in the sand,” said Sylvester. "She has failed to detoxify the party because she is unable to break with the past." In the long term, it could make it difficult to bring the Conservatives forward again.

Badenoch is not bothered by the fact that her current political priorities may not win over every voter. “The Conservatives are the Professor Snape of British politics,” she explains, referring to the villain from the Harry Potter universe who turns out to be good at the end of the book series. "We're trying to do the right thing. People think we're the bad guys, but without us everything would go to hell."

The extent to which she can convince her party members and counter the currently comparatively popular Prime Minister Burnham will be seen next Wednesday when she gives her speech at the Conservative party conference.