The Kentucky Wildcats are No. 6 in the season's intial College Football Playoff rankings but face a huge test Saturday when they visit Neyland Stadium to face the No. 13 Tennessee Volunteers in a huge SEC showdown. The Wildcats (7-1, 5-1) have reached their highest ranking ever, but coach Will Stein's team has work to do, with this the first of three consecutive ranked foes. The Vols (6-2, 3-2) saw their CFP hopes take a hit with a 27-24 loss at South Carolina last week, but there will be a sea of orange in Knoxville to welcome the upstarts. Saturday's kickoff is set for 6:15 p.m. ET. The Volunteers are 6.5-point home favorites at DraftKings, and the Over/Under for points scored is 50.5.
We're breaking down the latest Kentucky vs. Tennessee odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and highlighting our best bet for this SEC matchup with help from the SportsLine Projection Model. The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It entered Week 10 with an 80-77 record on all top-rated college football picks at betting sites this season.
The Wildcats have won six in a row since a 45-17 loss to Alabama the second week of the season. Now they will face Tennessee, Florida and Missouri in successive weeks, so Stein's crew will need to be on top of its game. UK already has victories over ranked Texas A&M and LSU squads. It comes in off an easy 34-27 victory against Vanderbilt and had a bye last week, so it should be ready for this one. The Wildcats put up 376 yards last week, including 173 on the ground, and allowed 247.
Quarterback Kenny Minchey has been avoiding mistakes as UK relies on running backs CJ Baxter, Jason Patterson and Jovantae Barnes. Minchey is completing 69% of his passes for 1,755 yards, 14 TDs and just one interception. He also has two rushing scores, but the running back trio is the bread and butter. All three backs average more than 5 yards per carry, with Baxter the bell cow, as he has 487 rushing yards and eight TDs. Patterson has 443 yards and three scores and Barnes has 224 and a TD on 43 carries. Baxter and Patterson each have runs of more than 70 yards.
Both teams average more than 32 points per game and Tennessee is eighth in the SEC in total yardage (394.5 ypg) while UK is ninth (386.4). The Vols are much better defensively, ranking fourth in the conference in yards allowed (288.4 ypg) and third in scoring (16.3 ppg). The Wildcats are allowing 24.8 points (10th in SEC) and 362.6 yards per game (11th). Where Kentucky has a big edge is in turnover margin, as the Wildcats are plus-13, fourth-best in the nation, while the Vols are plus-3.
The Volunteers are strong defensively, and their offense also relies heavily on the run game. Only South Carolina averages more rushing yards than the Vols' 213 yards per game among conference foes, while UK averages 167 per contest on the ground, seventh in the conference. Running back DeSean Bishop is sixth in the nation with 957 rushing yards and has four consecutive games over 100, including 220 against Auburn. He has also scored 11 touchdowns. Backup Daune Morris has 349 yards and two scores, and he and Bishop both average more than 5.5 yards per carry.
Quarterback George MacIntyre has played in place of Faizon Brandon the past four games, but he has two TD passes and five interceptions over that span. He also made a costly mistake against the Gamecocks last week. He did have some big plays nullified and is completing 67% of his passes compared to Brandon's 60%, but the latter has accounted for 10 TDs. Brandon has just one interception but has been sacked 15 times. Both could see time, but Brandon has dealt with a shoulder injury and MacIntyre has been up and down, so the running game and defense will be the keys.
The Vols lead FBS in sacks with 35, led by Tyree Weathersby's seven, which ties him for ninth in the nation. Xavier Gilliam has six and Mariyon Dye has five as they're among nine players with at least two. The Vols have turned the ball over a lot but have 14 takeaways, tied for 14th in FBS. The Wildcats are tied for fourth in the nation with 18. The hosts will be looking to make up for last week, when they rushed for 184 yards but MacIntyre fumbled on a strip sack with 33 seconds left to set up the winning field goal. He threw for 136 yards. The Vols had five sacks of LaNorris Sellers and controlled the ball but couldn't hold off the South Carolina rally.
Kentucky has covered the spread in every game except the loss to Alabama, and its games have gone Over the total in five of eight, including two of three on the road. Six of eight Vols games have gone Under, with all five home games falling short of the total. They are 4-4 against the spread and 3-2 ATS in Knoxville. Tennessee has won 12 of the past 14 meetings (one win was vacated), including 56-34 last October in Lexington.
