Under the impact of the VW crisis and the exclusion of several AfD candidates, around six million people in Lower Saxony are deciding on their local politics. What can be expected one year before the state elections?
Four AfD candidates were not admitted to the election because of doubts about their loyalty to the constitution. (Archive image) Photo: Julian Stratenschulte/dpa
Hanover. Around 6.3 million people from the North Sea to the Harz are called to take part in the local elections in Lower Saxony today (from 8 a.m.). They elect their local councils in the districts, cities and municipalities, and mayors, mayors and district administrators are also elected. In total there are more than 29,000 seats and more than 68,000 candidacies.
A year before the next state election on September 26, 2027, the elections are seen as a reflection of the mood in Lower Saxony, which is governed by the red-green coalition, not least against the background of the crisis at the Volkswagen car company, which is so important for the state. These are the first nationwide elections since Olaf Lies took over as Prime Minister from Stephan Weil (both SPD).
Four AfD candidates are not allowed to run
Between the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt last week and those in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania next week, the local elections are also an indicator of how the AfD is currently doing in a western German state. In the 2021 local elections in Lower Saxony, the AfD only achieved 4.6 percent at the district level.
Unlike back then, the AfD regional association is now listed as a right-wing extremist object of observation by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution. The party is defending itself legally. However, four AfD candidates were not admitted to the election because of doubts about their loyalty to the constitution. For example, AfD state deputy Stephan Bothe is not allowed to run for Lüneburg district administrator. Other AfD politicians are allowed to run against it, such as state parliament member Jessica Schülke in the mayoral election in Hanover.
How strong is the SPD still in its former stronghold of Hanover?
This election in the state capital in particular could have a signaling effect for the SPD. In 2019, the Social Democrats were defeated by the Green politician Belit Onay - after more than 70 years of SPD rule in Hanover. Onay is once again ahead in the polls for the mayoral election. If the SPD even misses a possible runoff election and does poorly elsewhere in Lower Saxony, this could further fuel the personnel debates in the party surrounding the Lower Saxony Vice Chancellor and co-party leader Lars Klingbeil. Possible runoff elections will take place nationwide on September 27th.
Hanover is particularly in the spotlight for another reason: as one of the locations where Volkswagen could close a plant in the next few years. The same applies to Emden. At the VW headquarters in Wolfsburg, the AfD had already become almost as strong as the SPD in the 2025 federal election, even though both ended up behind the CDU. The success of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt could possibly give the party further tailwind.
This is how the parties performed in the 2021 election
In the 2021 local elections, the CDU became the strongest force at district level with 31.7 percent, ahead of the SPD with 30.0 percent. Five years ago, the Greens achieved 15.9 percent, the FDP 6.5 percent, the AfD 4.6 percent and the Left 2.8 percent. The voter turnout at that time was 57.0 percent.
Next year, incumbent Lies and CDU state leader Sebastian Lechner will most likely face each other in the state elections in Lower Saxony. So far, their parties are roughly on par in surveys at around 25 percent. The AfD has long since announced its own claims to government. Surveys recently saw them at around 20 percent.
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