Around 20:30 on Thursday evening, someone opened a new account on the betting site Polymarket. At first nothing more happened to the account.
But at 9pm that evening, SD's party leader Jimmie Åkesson suddenly called a press conference in Sölvesborg. According to the party, the press meeting would be about the government issue and would take place at 12.30 the following day.
An hour after the Sweden Democrats' press release, the person behind the newly started account started depositing money. During the evening and Friday morning, the person behind the account bet a total of 11,613 dollars, over 110,000 kroner, on two outcomes: that Ulf Kristersson will be re-elected as prime minister, and that Magdalena Andersson will not be elected as prime minister.
Betting on Polymarket takes place with so-called shares. In total, the hot newly started account has bought over 40,000 shares. During Thursday evening and Friday morning, a "yes share" on Kristersson as prime minister cost 27 cents, and a "no share" on Magdalena Andersson 30 cents. These were apparently risky ventures.
On Friday, Jimmie Åkesson announced that he was now open to releasing a right-wing government without Sweden Democratic ministers. And the Center Party's party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist opened up to being able to also release Ulf Kristersson as prime minister.
Suddenly, a situation where Ulf Kristersson is elected prime minister became much more likely, and during Tuesday morning he was the favorite tipped at Polymarket. The value of the positions the anonymous account bought during Thursday night and Friday morning has thus increased sharply.
Since Polymarket is a so-called forecast market, you can sell your shares on to others. If the person behind the account were to sell his current holdings, he could make a profit of approximately SEK 130,000. The account is today the third largest holder of positions on who will be Sweden's next prime minister on Polymarket, but unlike the other two top accounts is completely new and has not bet money on other events.
DN has not been able to trace who is behind the account, which has changed its name at least once since it was created, and thus cannot know if the person knew in advance what Jimmie Åkesson was going to say at Friday's press conference.
The Sweden Democrats' press service states that they do not know about the anonymous Polymarket account or have any information about it. There are also no concrete rules that employees and representatives must follow.
"We have no formal policy linked to betting or trading on that type of platform, but naturally assume that both elected officials and employees demonstrate an ethical approach and follow Swedish legislation. If we judge that a need arises, we are open to reviewing the possibility of developing such a policy," the party announces via its press service.
The issue of insider trading in forecast markets has been raised several times since Polymarket and competitor Kalshi emerged as huge players. In April, for example, an American soldier was arrested who had bet $32,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's then-president Nicolás Maduro. Just hours after his last depositions, it became known that the United States had arrested Maduro. In total, the soldier is said to have earned $400,000 from the bet.
In June, it became known that deposed US Congressman George Santos is suspected of insider trading. This after he bet money that he himself would not attend President Donald Trump's address to the nation in February 2026, despite announcing on social media that he would participate. When Santos did not show up at the speech, he was able to earn large sums of money this way, as others took it for granted that he would be present.
DN has also sought the other Swedish parliamentary parties to hear if they have guidelines regarding whether employees and representatives are allowed to bet money on forecast markets. None of the parties that responded state that they have any guidelines that specifically relate to gambling on, for example, prediction markets.
"In general, all members, elected officials and employees are covered by the Moderates' ethical policy. It states that we must not act for our own financial or other personal gain in politics and that in all situations we must act in a way that withstands public scrutiny. We must also not expose ourselves to situations that involve embarrassment or undermine the party's integrity," writes Filip Uthammar, press secretary for the Moderates, in an email.
Gambling on forecast markets in Sweden is today relatively unregulated. Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has a Swedish license, but neither actively markets itself towards Sweden. This means that the Spelinspektionen cannot block the site, as has been done in Denmark. It is not illegal to play on the sites, but users are not covered by any consumer protection either.
The Financial Supervisory Authority states to DN that trading on forecast markets is covered by different rules depending on where the trading takes place and how the products are designed. In some cases it can be classified as trading in financial instruments and in some cases as betting. They are now participating in the work at EU level to clarify which rules apply when.
"Trading on forecast markets may be unauthorized and may lead to fines, other sanctions or imprisonment, even when Swedish or European market abuse legislation is not applicable. Several people have already been punished for insider trading on forecast markets in other countries, including the USA," writes Daniel Peterson at the Financial Supervisory Authority's press service, in a comment.
