Kremlin Envoy Warns of "Energy Crisis Tsunami" in Europe
Quick Look
- Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev warns of an "energy crisis tsunami" hitting Europe, exacerbated by the US-Israeli war on Iran.
- Crude prices surged 50% since February, impacting EU/UK fuel and gas prices.
- The UK issued a temporary license for Russian-origin fuel imports.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Europe is facing an energy crisis exacerbated by geopolitical events. The US-Israeli war on Iran has led to a surge in global crude prices, impacting European energy supplies that were already reduced due to the Ukraine conflict. Political shifts in Europe, with traditional parties losing ground to far-right coalitions, are also noted.
Europe is facing an “energy crisis tsunami” following a series of political earthquakes, Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev has warned. The forecast comes as energy shocks caused by the US‑Israeli war on Iran continue to destabilize supplies across the region.
Since the beginning of the US‑Israeli military campaign in late February, global crude benchmarks have surged by roughly 50%, forcing retail fuel and wholesale natural gas prices to historic highs. The Middle East conflict has further exacerbated a critical situation in European states, which had already drastically cut Russian energy imports since the 2022 escalation of the Ukraine conflict.
“More to come as the energy crisis tsunami hits the EU/UK imminently,” Dmitriev stated on X, responding to a Swedish journalist who noted that Germany’s right-wing AfD party was nearly as large as the CDU and SPD combined in the latest poll, calling the shift “a political earthquake.”
Traditional mainstream parties across Europe have increasingly lost ground to far-right or center-right coalitions over the past years.
The Iran-related energy shock has pushed the UK to issue a temporary license for Russian-origin diesel and jet fuel imports to stabilize markets shaken by disruptions to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The route handles around 20% of global oil and LNG. The decision, announced on Wednesday, mirrored a similar move by the US earlier this week extending a sanctions waiver for limited Russian seaborne oil purchases.
Several officials across the EU have called for restoring energy ties with Russia to tackle the crisis. However, the European Commission has stated that there will be no return to Russian energy imports and it will continue to pursue a full phase-out of Russian fossil fuels by 2027.
Earlier this year, Dmitriev said that the EU would “inevitably beg” for Russian gas, as energy prices are projected to further increase. He has also stated that the bloc is the last in line among Russian energy consumers as Moscow expands projects with other countries.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The energy crisis tsunami will hit the EU/UK imminently.
Likely · Within days
EU will continue to pursue a full phase-out of Russian fossil fuels by 2027.
Very likely · Long term
Open Questions
- What are the long-term implications of the UK's temporary license for Russian-origin fuel?
- Will other EU countries follow the UK's lead in seeking energy ties with Russia?
- What specific measures will the European Commission take to achieve a full phase-out of Russian fossil fuels by 2027?
- How will the ongoing conflict in the Middle East further impact global energy markets?
