US President Donald Trump never saw himself as a supporter of Ukraine, which was attacked by Russia. He promised to end the war - as a mediator. But that hasn't happened yet.
Now Trump has reached agreements with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin and is apparently moving closer to him. Ukraine, facing a severe winter of war, is left alone. Is this the “darkest moment for the Ukrainians in this war so far,” as foreign policy expert Klemens Fischer says? Questions and answers about a geopolitical shift in power:
How and why is Trump putting pressure on Ukraine?
The bad news for Ukraine from the USA has followed quickly in recent weeks: First, after a phone call with Putin, the US President surprisingly announced a diesel deal: Russia would make hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel available to the USA and the world market. The USA temporarily lifted sanctions against Russian diesel. A week later, Trump also suspended planned new sanctions against Russia shortly before they came into force. These were aimed at curbing Russian oil and gas exports, which Russia uses to finance its war of aggression against Ukraine.
So instead of increasing the pressure on Putin, Trump did the opposite. While he justified the suspension of sanctions with an unspecified "national interest" of the US, he sold the diesel agreement as a measure that would quickly reduce fuel prices. Experts expressed doubts about any significant effects. The step nevertheless allowed Trump to present himself domestically as a president who takes his compatriots' concerns about rising fuel prices seriously.
A few weeks before the important congressional elections, they are putting him under a lot of pressure. Republicans have also recently blamed the Iran war for the increased prices in an unusually clear manner. Trump, in turn, is trying to distract from the consequences of his war. He repeatedly blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a global diesel shortage and called on him to stop attacks on Russian refineries.
The Ukrainian military has also been complaining for several days about a throttling of the military-important Starlink satellite internet. This belongs to the corporate empire of US tech billionaire Elon Musk, but the Starshield special function used for military purposes is, according to him, controlled by the Pentagon. Trump denies being responsible for the throttling.
Could the course change again after the midterms?
That is unclear. The pressure is currently high in the election campaign and Trump has to signal to US citizens that he is doing something about the increased fuel prices. Theoretically, he can put the suspended sanctions against Russia into effect at a later date. The US Treasury Department has issued the temporary permit for the sale, delivery, unloading and import of diesel from Russia until April 7, 2027 - a good five months after the midterm elections in early November.
Since taking office, Trump has made several U-turns in the Ukraine war. Even in contrast to the previous US government, he was particularly noticeable for his closeness to Russian positions.
Politics professor Samuel Greene from King's College in London sees a change that will continue: Previously, his assessment was that Trump was prepared to abandon Ukraine. However, the gains from normalizing relations with Russia did not outweigh the “costs of capitulation” by Kiev.
He fears the political situation has changed, he wrote on
What is the reaction in Ukraine?
There is great horror about Trump in Ukraine. Russian drone and missile fire since August has caused many civilian casualties. The Ukrainian energy system is already struggling before winter has even begun. Not the will to resist, but the means are dwindling.
"Trump is not stopping Russia's war against Ukraine. Trump is helping Putin win," human rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize winner Olexandra Matviychuk wrote on
These days, Zelenskyj is also giving up the restraint with which he used to react to Trump. Suspending the planned new sanctions seemed wrong to him, he said. “It clearly only helps the Russians.” At the same time, he emphasized that he was ready to continue talks with the USA at any time.
Where is Ukraine militarily dependent on the USA?
Without US support, things will be difficult for Ukraine's defenders in many places. Europe can hardly replace failures.
Reconnaissance data: According to Ukrainian statements, the USA provides data on possible Russian attacks, for example on the launch of fighter jets or preparations for missile launches. Information important for Ukrainian counterattacks is also transmitted: Russian troop movements, command centers, anti-aircraft defense positions. Some of this data now also comes from Europe, at least France claims this.
Starlink: The Ukrainian army communicates largely via satellite internet from SpaceX. Drones are also controlled with such connections to intercept Russian combat drones or to attack military targets in the occupied territories. The Ukrainian army is currently holding the Russian advance in check. A loss of communications threatens the front. Europe cannot step in here.
Air defense: The US Patriot air defense system is considered the best protection against Russia's ballistic missiles. But the PAC missiles for this are in short supply. The USA delivers little. Supporters like Germany pass on ammunition from their own arsenals to Ukraine or try to collect rockets piecemeal from other armies.
Weapons purchases in the USA: Under Trump, the USA no longer provides military aid, but NATO states are buying US weapons for Ukraine in the so-called PURL program. This program is ongoing, but Trump could change his mind here too.
What does the continuation of the war look like for Moscow?
For Putin, waging war is becoming easier: Trump is not putting pressure on him, sanctions are crumbling, and revenue from diesel exports is flowing into the war chest. After long-tense relations, mutually beneficial cooperation awaits, as the responsible Kremlin representative Kirill Dmitriyev announced.
The Kremlin is sticking to its basic war goal of subjugating Ukraine. Putin assumes that his country has the staying power, said government opponent and former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky in Berlin last week. Despite the many dead soldiers, the Russian population will not rebel against the war for some time. And European support could be shaken, for example by a right-wing election victory in France in 2027.
