Critically about NATO strategy. Former CIA officer: May encourage Russia to attack

Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, commander of NATO forces in Europe, presented on Monday in Warsaw a "common vision" of the North Atlantic Alliance's response to potential aggression.

Speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum conference, he said that in the first phase, NATO land forces are to dominate the enemy's attack, tie up his formations with maneuvers and prevent him from occupying the territory of the Alliance, and the air force and navy, cooperating with space and cyber forces, are to quickly gain an advantage in the air and at sea.

Although the American military officer never mentioned Russia during his speech, it was clear to everyone that his words were addressed primarily to Moscow.

"The war would take place mainly on NATO territory"

The speech of General Alexus Grynkewich was commented on in an interview with the Polish Press Agency by Philip Wasielewski, a military analyst from the Foreign Policy Research Institute think tank and a former CIA officer. He assessed that the NATO commander in Europe did not clearly present the potential consequences for Russia.

He recalled the words of the general who directly said that NATO's goal would not be to lead to the "strategic defeat" of the enemy, but only to repel the invasion. This would mean that the war would take place mainly on NATO territory, emphasized the retired Marine officer.

According to the analyst, the speech focused on stopping and slowing down the Russian attack, but did not contain a clear announcement that Moscow would also bear the cost of aggression on its own territory. He also emphasized that he was not directing his criticism at General Grynkewich personally.

Criticism of limited deterrence

Philip Wasielewski admitted that General Alexus Grynkewich's statement included an announcement of attacking the forces and capabilities supporting, supplying and controlling the aggressive troops, but - in his opinion - this key phrase was not properly highlighted.

The analyst concluded that such a declaration refers primarily to military purposes, but does not speak directly about the Russian arms industry, energy potential or political goals. At best, in the slightest way, it suggests strikes deep inside Russia, he said.

According to the former CIA officer, a too limited response strategy may be interpreted by the Kremlin as a signal that Russia would be able to cause extensive destruction in the countries of the region without risking consequences commensurate with the scale of the attack. In practice, we are telling the Russians: okay, yes, you can invade half of the Baltic states, he said. He added that even a short-term offensive could bring disastrous consequences for the attacked countries.

"The Modern Mongol Invasion"

An expert from the Foreign Policy Research Institute think tank warned that in such a scenario, Russia could attack the Baltic states and part of Poland, destroy infrastructure and cities, and then withdraw its forces to rebuild them. Apart from the losses of soldiers, whom (Vladimir) Putin does not care about, there would be no cost. It would be like a modern-day Mongol invasion that is destroying the country, he said.

In his opinion, after such an experience, the countries of NATO's eastern flank could ask themselves what their membership in the Alliance gave them, and not - as the speech suggests - become more closely associated with it.

The analyst argued that the Alliance should emphasize more strongly its ability to use long-range precision weapons against Russia's military and industrial base. The Russians have been afraid of our precision weapons since (Ronald) Reagan. There is nothing stopping us from saying: what Ukraine is doing with your military-industrial and oil complex, we will do ten times more effectively - said the interlocutor of the Polish Press Agency.

American troops in Europe? “I would wait for the trucks.”

When asked about the tone of General Alexus Grynkewich's speech in the face of a possible reduction in the presence of American troops in Europe, Philip Wasielewski said that he did not believe in quick decisions on this matter.

I would wait until I saw moving trucks outside American bases. Congress has banned such steps, and after the November (mid-term) elections, its composition may change significantly - noted the former CIA officer.