Decrease in global steel demand expectations

The World Steel Association (Worldsteel) published the Short-Term Outlook report on global steel demand covering the period 2026-2027.

Accordingly, it was estimated that global steel demand would remain largely unchanged this year at 1 billion 722 million tons, and would reach 1 billion 752 million tons with an increase of 1.7 percent next year.

In the report published in April 2026, the Association predicted that global steel demand would grow by 0.3 percent in 2026 and 2.2 percent in 2027.

China's real estate and infrastructure crisis affects demand

It was stated that almost all of this downward revision in the forecasts was due to the structural contraction in China.

It is predicted that steel demand in China, the world's largest steel consumer, will decrease by 2 percent in 2026 and 1 percent in 2027, as the decline in real estate investments does not slow down and infrastructure projects remain in the negative zone.

In its report in April, the World Steel Association predicted that China's demand would decrease by 1.5 percent in 2026 and that there would be no change in 2027.

Global steel demand outside China is expected to gain a strong momentum, increasing by 1.5 percent in 2026 and 4 percent in 2027, in line with the predictions in April.

India maintains its position as the world's fastest growing steel market

India maintained its position as the world's fastest growing steel market, supported by infrastructure projects, strong private real estate demand and capacity increases in the manufacturing industry.

It is predicted that steel demand in the country will reach 172.4 million tons with an increase of 7.9 percent in 2026, and 186.2 million tons with an increase of 8 percent in 2027.

Steel demand in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, which drew a strong growth story in the April report, is expected to decline sharply by 11 percent in 2026 due to the postponement of projects and delays in financing decisions.

The region is predicted to make a strong comeback with an increase of 11.3 percent in 2027 under the scenario of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and normalization of supply chains.

It was noted that demand in ASEAN-5 countries, led by Vietnam among the developing economies, will grow by 5.2 percent in 2026 and stabilize at 3.2 percent in 2027.

Recovery is expected in 2027 in developed countries

It is predicted that steel demand in developed economies will increase by 1 percent in 2026 and 2.2 percent in 2027.

The report emphasized that artificial intelligence investments, defense industry expenditures and green energy transition budgets will lead industrial activities in developed countries to a broad-based recovery in 2027.

The outlook across the European Union (EU) was lowered by 1.5 points compared to April.

It was estimated that steel demand in the EU would decrease by 0.3 percent in 2026 due to the end of stock accumulation before the Border Carbon Regulation Mechanism and weak economic conditions, and increase by 3.1 percent in 2027.

In his evaluation of the report, Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chairman of the Worldsteel Economy Committee, stated that the global economy is resistant to the energy market disruptions caused by the instabilities in the Middle East and said, "Although the global economy has absorbed the first shock, its capacity to buffer subsequent disruptions is gradually depleting. Therefore, we maintain our cautious stance towards the 2027 outlook." he said.

Growth momentum continues in the Turkish market

The Association expects the steady increase trend in Türkiye's steel demand to continue. In the association's report, it was estimated that Türkiye's demand for finished steel products would increase by 2.9 percent to 40.4 million tons in 2026, and to reach 41.6 million tons with a 3 percent increase in 2027. The country's total demand in 2025 was recorded as 39.3 million tons.