Global oil supply increased by 2.5 million barrels per day in September

According to the IEA's Oil Market Report for September, the production of the OPEC+ group, consisting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producer countries, increased by 2 million 60 thousand barrels per day on a monthly basis, reaching 40 million 620 thousand barrels, despite the attacks on the East-West oil pipeline on September 11.

Saudi Arabia led this increase. Saudi Arabia's production increased by 2 million 330 thousand barrels and reached 8 million 300 thousand barrels.

The supply outside OPEC+ increased by 480 thousand barrels per day, reaching 77 million 90 thousand barrels, due to the increase in the production of the United Arab Emirates and the resumption of the UK's offshore production after seasonal maintenance works.

Thus, global oil supply increased by 2 million 500 thousand barrels per day in September compared to the previous month, reaching 102 million 320 thousand barrels.

IEA expects global oil supply this year to be approximately 100 million 700 thousand barrels, a decrease of 5 million 800 thousand barrels per day compared to the previous year. Next year, it is expected to change direction and increase by approximately 7 million 700 thousand barrels per day compared to this year, reaching 108 million 300 thousand barrels.

Gulf producers' oil supply recovered in September

According to the report, the oil supply of producers in the Gulf increased by 2 million 600 thousand barrels per day in September compared to the previous month, reaching 24 million 300 thousand barrels.

Oil exports of the countries in the region, excluding Oman, increased by 4 million 700 thousand barrels per day in the same period, reaching 16 million 500 thousand barrels. Despite this, exports remained 33 percent below their pre-war level.

While oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz increased by 3 million 700 thousand barrels per day to 10 million 900 thousand barrels, exports from alternative routes increased by 970 thousand barrels per day with the recovery of flows in the East-West oil pipeline.

Crude oil exports from the region increased by 4 million 400 thousand barrels per day and reached 13 million 900 thousand barrels.

On the other hand, the continuation of attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers in the Gulf increases the risks regarding the sustainability of the production and export recovery in the region.

Global oil demand is expected to decrease by 2.6 million barrels per day this year

IEA predicts that global oil demand will decrease by 2 million 500 thousand barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, and by an average of 2 million 600 thousand barrels throughout the year.

Thus, global oil demand is expected to decrease to an average of 102 million 377 thousand barrels per day this year.

The Iranian war restricting access to oil products, the rapid rise in fuel prices and the worsening economic outlook are among the main reasons for the decline in global oil demand.

The report estimates that approximately 25 percent of the decrease in demand will result from the decline in diesel consumption.

Global oil demand is expected to increase to 104 million 377 thousand barrels in 2027, with a partial recovery of 2 million barrels per day.

Despite this, it is predicted that global oil consumption next year will remain 620 thousand barrels per day below the 2025 level. Thus, it is estimated that global oil demand for next year will reach approximately 104 million 400 thousand barrels.