The International Energy Agency predicts that global oil supply will exceed demand at the end of the year

The oil market is finally easing since the start of the war in Iran, with signs of a rebalancing between oil supply and demand. But the impact on pump prices will not be automatic. For the International Energy Agency, the signs are still timid.

Oil production has actually increased in recent weeks after falling considerably with the war in Iran. Supply should therefore exceed demand in the last quarter and consolidate at the start of 2027. Exports from Gulf countries are resuming despite attacks on certain ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

But the drop in pump prices will not follow the same pace because tensions remain high in refining, that is to say the transformation of petroleum products such as diesel. This is linked in particular to attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine, but also to limited refining capacities in Europe.

The release of strategic stocks, on the other hand, is producing its first effects, according to the Energy Agency. In France, the average price of diesel reached 2.17 euros on Friday November 17.