The Banque de France adjusts its economic growth forecasts

In the game of economic forecasts, institutes easily change hats. After playing the role of the catastrophist before the summer by forecasting growth suddenly dropping from 0.9% to 0.5% in 2026, compared to 0.7% for INSEE - and having been criticized for this - the Banque de France is taking the place of the optimist.

The institution certainly further lowered its growth this Tuesday to 0.4% for the current year, due in particular to the consequences of the heatwave, but its reading of events shows light at the end of the tunnel. Where the national statistics institute points to a “dropout” in the country, the Banque de France prefers to note “resilience” in the face of “headwinds which are not expected to last”, namely the explosion in energy prices due to tensions in the Middle East.

In the words of Xavier Debrun, its chief economist, “a substrate for growth remains there, we are not in a situation where we should…”