The good star

With five races to go, Kimi Antonelli could go on vacation, watch the races on TV and be world champion without making any effort. Mathematics says that he could win the title this week in Mexico even without scoring: it would be enough for him if neither George Russell nor Lewis Hamilton won the race. We could talk about simulations, probabilities and possible scenarios, but the vast majority favors the Italian. Russell would have to win all five races and hope that Kimi didn't score more than one point between them all. Moral: Antonelli has it in his pocket.

It's not just a numerical question. The success of the Mercedes driver is the result of an unusual planetary alignment: the unconditional support of Toto Wolff and Mercedes from his earliest age; a trajectory designed based on shortcuts; a change in regulations that has been good for him and bad for his partner; a year of dominance by Mercedes and irregularity by its rivals; a surprising progression in his driving style, and an indisputable good star at specific moments.

Antonelli's adaptation to the 2026 cars has been meteoric, and that allowed him to score an enormous amount of points at the start of the season, when Mercedes was one step ahead of the rest. Mercedes' dominance translated into the victory of its drivers in the first six races, although with an unequal distribution: five for Kimi and only one for Russell. The Briton, who won the first race of the year, had technical problems in qualifying for the second, in China; a safety car ruined his victory in the third, in Japan; The fourth was Miami, a circuit that he has never been good at and where he lacked rhythm; In the fifth, in Canada, his car shut down and he had to retire, and in the sixth, in Monaco, he was penalized with a drive-through with four laps remaining. Russell's face when he took the boat in the port of Monaco to go home was a poem. Almost without realizing it, with only a quarter of the season played, his teammate was already ahead of him by 68 points.

That mattress was especially soothing for Kimi, who was able to run without pressure, at least without that of his partner, who, every time he tried to raise his head, received a new punishment. In Belgium he was hit by Lewis Hamilton on the first lap. Russell was knocked out, and Lewis, with no chance of fighting for the podium. Victory for Kimi, whose good star left him without rivals.

Mercedes stagnated and rivals progressed. Ferrari experienced a short period of dominance that lasted two races; Then came McLaren, which won two more, and both disappeared in Italy, where Antonelli's comeback was an overdose of adrenaline for the Italian and another bucket of ice water for Russell. In Spain, a virtual safety car once again gave Antonelli a victory, this time at the expense of Norris. The VSC arrived just as the Briton had just passed through the pit lane entrance and just in time for Kimi to enter.

In Austin, Kimi won again after a three-race drought. It was one of his easiest and most comfortable victories, because at the start he was once again left without rivals: Max Verstappen started badly and the Ferraris lost time fighting with him on the first lap. Before they realized it, Antonelli had already fled. Zero pressure, zero risks, zero suffering.