The migration crisis cost Ceuta between 3.5 and 4% of GDP and 198 million in loss of the city's image, according to the Chamber of Commerce

The Ceuta Chamber of Commerce estimates that the migration crisis caused direct economic losses of between 65.5 and 74.3 million euros in the city's commerce and port in the first two months. The figure comes from four reports that the Chamber has sent to the judge of the National Court María Tardón.

The estimates requested by the judge on October 16 indicate that the damage is equivalent to between 3.53% and 4% of Ceuta's annual GDP, which according to the Chamber itself serves to "dimension the magnitude" of what happened in just two months and in an economy with a lot of small businesses and the self-employed.

The first balance sheet, closed on August 31, estimates the damage at 33 million and divides it into three blocks. The first, the stoppage of activity between July 30 and August 1, when the massive arrival occurred. These immediate losses are estimated at seven million. Another, the suspension of the patron saint festivities, scheduled for August 1 to 8 with 38 booths and about 50 attractions: it stopped generating 10.25 million. As for the rest of August, losses are estimated at another 15.7 million.

The report is based on a survey of 302 companies, close to one in 10 of those active in the city. According to that survey, commerce invoiced around 53% less in August than a year before and the hospitality industry, 50.7% less. Tourist cancellations exceeded 90%. The hotels only lost half of their turnover because they filled part of the rooms with agents, journalists and officials displaced by the emergency. The Chamber clarifies that this occupation "cannot be interpreted" as a recovery of tourism.

September was worse

The second balance concludes that September "cannot be interpreted as a month of normalization." Not counting the port, business losses and the drop in consumption reached 18.6 million. The declines in turnover declared by companies were 50.9% in commerce, 54.6% in hospitality, 62.9% in travel agencies and close to 75% in leisure.

To this figure are added the losses of the city's port, which the report estimates between between 13.9 and 22.7 million. On September 8, the Interior raised the protection of the site to level 2, after authorizing the use of some 16,000 square meters of port land for a reception facility. Eight cruise calls scheduled for 2026 were canceled that month.

The specific study on the port projects that, if level 2 is maintained until December 31, the direct impact will be between 53.6 and 88.9 million. This range corresponds to a drop of between 30% and 50% in the exposed activity, especially the supply of fuel to ships. The Chamber warns of the risk that shipping companies and shipowners will go to Algeciras, Gibraltar, Tangier Med or Cádiz.

Employment and image

The reports also indicate the first effects on employment. In September unemployment fell, but according to the Chamber, the increase in membership was concentrated in activities linked to the emergency, such as security, cleaning, health and social services. The number of self-employed workers fell by almost 10% in commerce and 12% in transport compared to the previous year.

Apart from the direct losses, the Chamber calculates the damage to the image of Ceuta. It estimated it at 170.1 million in August and raised it to 198.41 million in September. The reports themselves specify that this figure is based on a deterioration of 60% and then 70%, applied to an estimated value of the city's reputation.

The loss figures do not include the extraordinary expenditure of the Autonomous City for the reception of immigrants and the needs they generate. According to previously released estimates, it was around 80 million and could reach 153 million by the end of 2026.