Inflation shoots up to 4.9% in September due to higher fuel prices

Inflation has shot up to 4.9% in September, according to advance data published this Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). This is the maximum level since February 2023, when the effect of the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine was still being felt, and represents a monthly increase of six tenths compared to the month of August. Core inflation, which does not take into account the prices of energy or fresh food and is a less volatile indicator to track the rise in prices in the economy, advanced two tenths compared to the August figure, up to 3.1%.

The Ministry of Economy assured in a note that "the main cause is the increase in fuel prices, a consequence of the energy shock derived from the war in Iran continuing. In addition, there is a base effect, because fuel prices fell in September 2025."

The Council of Ministers will approve this Tuesday a decree to alleviate and even try to contain the evolution of prices in recent months, with a limitation on the last resort rate for gas and butane as two of the main measures. The Government has little fiscal margin because it has already exhausted it in the two previous packages, the March one, with a lot of firepower, numerous tax cuts and fuel aid, and the July one, more moderate and which expires tomorrow. The Executive initially thought that after the summer energy prices would be lowered again and, however, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has become entrenched and there are gas supply problems. The diesel supply situation is also extreme, in part due to Ukraine's bombing of Russian refineries, which has led the United States to consider an export ban, further straining the market.

Despite the rapid rise in prices, the Executive assures that "thanks to the approved measures, inflation has moderated to a point in some months and households have been compensated for around half of the increase in gasoline and diesel." Furthermore, he believes that support for the countryside and transportation has helped contain the contagion of the energy shock to the rest of prices, the so-called second round effects.