On August 2, 2016, Donald Trump's then campaign manager, Paul Manafort, had a dinner in New York with Russian agent Konstantin Kilimnik, his partner, in which they discussed "a plan to resolve the persistent political problems in Ukraine by creating an autonomous republic in its most industrialized eastern region, the Donbass", an area already partially occupied then by pro-Russian militias with support from Moscow and whose control remains today the main objective of the war launched in 2022 for Russia against Ukraine. According to the plan, Viktor Yanukovych, the Ukrainian president overthrown in 2014, was to be in charge of this new republic, an indirect way for Russia to control the east of the country. This is stated in the report on Russian interference in the 2016 North American presidential elections prepared by special prosecutor Robert Mueller.
This episode has been rescued these days by some analysts – such as the historian Heather Cox Richardson – following the agreement reached by the president of the United States, Donald Trump, with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for Moscow to sell up to 4.8 million tons of diesel to the United States and in the international market in the current context of rising fuel prices and when there are only sixteen days left for the North American mid-term legislative elections. Which deals a stab in the back to Ukraine and its European allies.
The maneuver, blatantly electoral, seeks to make Americans believe that the fault that the price of diesel has skyrocketed – it has risen 45% in the US since Trump launched the war against Iran – is not the conflict in the Middle East but the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, for his attacks on Russian oil refineries and infrastructure. Trump himself, who is perfectly aware that barrels of Russian diesel will not help him lower prices between now and the November 3 vote – they will barely cover the consumption of a day and a half, according to The Economist – was looking for a scapegoat and pointed the finger at Zelensky: “He wants to create problems for our farmers and ranchers with diesel fuel,” he wrote last weekend on his social network, Truth, while urging him to stop his attacks on Russian refineries and – later – announced an “energy ceasefire” between Moscow and Kyiv that the facts have denied.
That Trump seeks to remove the blame for the rise in diesel prices before the elections does not hide the fact that the US president, in this latest twist of script, has once again embraced Moscow's theses for the end of the conflict, which, basically, imply the surrender of Ukraine and the cession of the territory of Donbass. That is why he once again presented Zelensky as the great obstacle to peace and advocated a change in the country's presidency, while his messengers threatened Kyiv with withdrawing North American aid if it persisted in its attacks against Russian energy plants.
If the Mueller report on Russian interference is evoked today by some analysts, it is to underline the long-standing connections between Trump and Putin. But, in addition to this closeness, what the content of the 2016 meeting confirms is that the annexation of the Donbass by Russia has been in the papers of Trumpism for a long time. In fact, Trump himself evoked the possibility of “territorial cessions” as a way to end the war on the eve of his summit with the Russian president in Anchorage (Alaska) in 2025.
The pressure on Zelensky has not only been verbal. On the night of Tuesday to Wednesday, in the midst of the Russian bombing, Kyiv lacked intelligence information on the enemy's air attacks and found restrictions on the use of the Starshield satellite network – the military branch of Starlink –, which the Ukrainian army uses for its operations. Space X president Elon Musk attributed that temporary interruption – the service was initially restored on Thursday – to the White House. Feeling “betrayed,” Zelensky ordered the resumption of attacks against Russian refineries.
The Europeans, once again confused by their supposed ally, have closed ranks around Zelensky and reaffirmed their commitment to the defense of Ukraine. The European Commission delivered 2.86 billion euros to Kyiv on Wednesday – on account of the agreed 90 billion loan – to finance drones, air defense and electronic warfare systems, missiles, radars and ammunition.
Trump's maneuver has not only surprised Ukrainians and Europeans. A group of Republican and Democratic senators have publicly rejected Trump's agreement with Putin, which violates the 2022 ban on importing Russian oil and the so-called Graham law, of September 18, which reinforces sanctions against Russia.
All this occurs at a time when, although Moscow is mercilessly bombing the cities and energy facilities of Ukraine – which is short of air defense systems, especially Patriot missiles, which the US has spent on Iran – the situation on the front is practically stagnant, with Russian advance very slow and with many setbacks. “Ukrainian forces have defeated the 2026 Russian campaign to take Donetsk Oblast,” concludes the latest report, dated October 8, from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). And that, at a terrible human price: the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that Russia has suffered since the beginning of the war 1.4 million casualties among dead, wounded and missing soldiers, for 500,000-600,000 Ukraine.
