Moscow's strategy against Ukrainian energy: the plan to hit power plants and water

According to the New York Times, Moscow's strategy was expected: for months, in fact, Ukrainian officials have been warning the population, saying that next winter could be the hardest since the war broke out. And already on Wednesday there were the first signs: drones and missiles targeted Kiev, where on Thursday morning there were several neighborhoods without electricity or water.

The strategy behind these attacks, according to what Ukrainian officials said, is clear: to support a campaign during the winter to leave the cities and their inhabitants in the cold and in the dark, breaking their morale and jamming the country's war machine. This is not, however, anything new: since the beginning of the war, in fact, Moscow has conducted similar campaigns every winter, so far with less than exceptional results, but this year it has ballistic missiles and drones at its disposal that Ukraine has shown it is struggling to intercept.

The Ukrainian Energy Minister, Denys Shmyhal, showed a document to European peers at the Paris summit two weeks ago: in the text, presented as an intercepted Russian plan, reference would be made - again according to what was reported by the New York Times - to the methods and strategies designed to bring Kiev's energy system to its knees.

The document states that the attacks should be conducted using up to a thousand missiles, drones and bombs: the targets of these strikes would be various, including electrical systems and thermoelectric and hydroelectric plants. Furthermore, among the targets identified by the Kremlin there would also be the three nuclear power plants active in the country - which constitute the backbone of Ukraine's energy system - with the intention of hitting the plants that connect them to the electricity grid.

But it would not only be energy plants and infrastructures in Moscow's sights: Russia would in fact also aim to attack Ukraine's water system, in particular the pumping stations and those for waste water treatment. In the latter case, this would be something new: Russia has so far never targeted water supplies on a large scale, and fears are filtering from Kiev that the country is not equipped to deal with such a threat.

The Russian attack strategy described in the document intercepted by Kiev would be divided into three phases: firstly, Moscow would aim to attack substations near the western borders, which allow the country to import electricity from Europe. Once Ukraine is isolated from other countries, attacks would focus on hydroelectric power plants. Finally, the third and final phase would have as its objective the decommissioning of nuclear power plants.

As mentioned, the plan did not come unexpectedly: Russia has been targeting Ukraine's plants for some time, and in recent weeks President Vladimir Putin publicly announced a vast winter campaign against energy infrastructure: the Tsar presented this campaign as a response to Ukrainian attacks against Russian refineries. And so in recent months Kiev has tried to gear up, investing hundreds of millions of dollars in repairs, protection of plants and the installation of smaller and more difficult-to-hit generation units.

However, this is not necessarily enough: in fact, attacks of great intensity could compromise the work to restore and strengthen the energy network. According to Olena Pavlenko, head of the DiXi Group energy research center, facing another winter with such a weakened system will be like "running a marathon with only one lung".