Labor's reform agenda: A push for change amid shifting polls

When opinion polls shift, previous assumptions can too.

Like whether One Nation's rise is unstoppable. Or whether frustrated voters flocking to the party care about Pauline Hanson's actual policy positions.

The Newspoll and Redbridge surveys this week suggest there is a ceiling for One Nation. A limit, perhaps, to the number of Australians who share Hanson's concerns about paid parental leave, "lazy workers", and the need for a "monoculture".

The slight recovery in Labor's polling also changes assumptions about what's in store for the remainder of this parliamentary term

'Legitimate concerns': Chalmers

The usual playbook for governments is to attempt the difficult stuff early in the term and then play it safe.

When the prime minister copped a budget backlash for breaking promises, slugging investors with little consultation, and trying to rein in the NDIS, many assumed that would be it for Labor this term when it came to anything mildly contentious. The next couple of years would simply involve handing out bigger tax cuts and other goodies.

But even before this week's polls delivered a reality check for One Nation and a gut-punch for the Coalition, the prime minister and treasurer were suggesting otherwise.

They made relatively modest concessions to the tax changes but insisted they weren't spooked. If anything, they were signalling a gear shift. A readiness to accelerate reform as an answer to the frustrations of voters fed up with the status quo.

In last week's address to the Labor caucus, the prime minister cited one of his reforming predecessors, Paul Keating, who once told the NSW ALP Conference that "the Labor Party is a bit like a bicycle; if you stop pedalling, it falls over".

Albanese, considered overly cautious in his first term, now wants to pedal faster.

So does Jim Chalmers.

He sees a powerful lesson in the demise of British Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

"I think there's something more fundamental happening here, which is that people understand, as we understand in our government, that the status quo is not working for people, particularly in the economy, but in our societies more broadly," the treasurer told Insiders.

Rather than exploit the frustration, Chalmers says Labor must address it, even if that involves political risk.

"These legitimate concerns that people have, they're not made up, they're not pretend."

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Ideas from Labor's rank and file

So, what further risks is Labor willing to take?

There's no shortage of ideas being put forward. Particularly from Labor's own rank and file.

This year's NSW ALP Conference kicks off on Saturday. The fiery policy debates at Sydney Town Hall are more managed these days than they were back in Keating's day, but this is still a forum where the grassroots of the party like to give their elected state and federal representatives a push.

While welcoming the budget crackdown on negative gearing and capital gains tax, this weekend's conference is set to endorse a series of motions urging the Albanese government to go much further.

Amongst them, a motion from the Kensington/Beaconsfield ALP branch calling for a full White Paper process, even broader than the 2010 Henry tax review.

"A big picture, comprehensive, ambitious and meaningful tax reform package is now needed", according to the motion, "to help boost business investment; lift productivity and our nation's international competitiveness; propel sustainable long-term economic growth; advance fiscal sustainability; and help improve housing affordability".

Importantly, the proposed review isn't simply aimed at taxing the rich and redistributing wealth. It suggests the White Paper look at "which spending pressures can be trimmed and, in all areas, which tier of government — Commonwealth or state — should have the responsibility for policy design and program delivery, thereby determining the allocation of taxation powers."

Other motions are more squarely focused on raising more revenue. The ideas range from a "net wealth tax on billionaires" to an overhaul of the gas tax and the diesel fuel rebate.

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Reform as an antidote to populism

Unions are also heading to the NSW conference armed with proposals.

They include paying superannuation to teenage workers, more funding for public housing, and the big one — stronger regulation of artificial intelligence.

A motion from the SDA, or Shoppies' Union, calls for worker protections to be legislated as AI is rolled out, and for the economic gains to be "broadly shared across the nation rather than captured by monopolistic platforms or a narrow tech elite".

The NSW conference will be followed by the ALP's National Conference later this month in Adelaide, where the grassroots pressure on each of these fronts will continue, on an even bigger stage.

This week's polls, as always, are a snapshot in time. They may prove to be a mere road-bump for One Nation and a brief respite for the government. But that's not the view within Labor.

The prime minister and treasurer see further reform and risk-taking as the antidote to populism. Rank-and-file Labor members are on board.

It's unclear how much further the government will go to address the "legitimate concerns" of frustrated voters and whether this will simply involve more spending, or more politically difficult steps to fix the budget and boost productivity.

But this week's polls have only reinforced the view around the cabinet table of the need to pedal faster.