Lagarde would equal any other centrist in Elysée run, poll shows

Christine Lagarde, the departing president of the European Central Bank, would fare as well as center-right candidate Edouard Philippe were she to run in next year’s French presidential election, according to new polling commissioned by POLITICO.

Lagarde, who served as French economy minister almost two decades ago under former President Nicolas Sarkozy, would get 14% of the vote were she to run instead of Philippe, who would receive 13.5% against a similar slate of candidates, according to polling from Cluster17.

While Lagarde has previously ruled out running, her early departure from the ECB next February has renewed speculation she could take part in a contest where centrist and right-wing candidates have struggled to break through.

In a highly unlikely scenario in which Lagarde runs next to Philippe and multiple recently declared candidates, including Olympic judo champion Teddy Riner and columnist Natasha Polony, she would also rival President Emmanuel Macron’s former prime minister with 8% support.

In both cases, far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and leftist hopeful Jean-Luc Mélenchon are projected to finish first and second, respectively, which would qualify them for next May’s runoff round.

Cluster17’s survey, the first public poll to test a Lagarde candidacy, shows the centrist vote is “very fluid,” according to the institute’s president, Jean-Yves Dormagen. “At this stage there is a patent lack of leadership in the moderate and centrist space.”

The centrist camp is grappling with an internal conflict between Philippe and Gabriel Attal, another former prime minister. Philippe, who was once a favorite to face Le Pen in the second round, has struggled to gain traction despite months of campaigning, POLITICO’s Poll of Polls show.

Conservative Bruno Retailleau, who served as interior minister under Macron, is also a candidate along with right-wing Cannes Mayor David Lisnard and center-left MEP Raphaël Glucksmann. All hope to defy the increasing odds of a Le Pen-Mélenchon runoff.

Lagarde previously dismissed her candidacy as “not a good idea at all,” but since announcing her early exit from the ECB on Oct. 29 she has avoided answering the question directly.

Asked by POLITICO whether she was still ruling out running during a panel at the Paris Peace Forum on Wednesday, Lagarde stuck to her guns: “I said I want to recover my freedom to speak, my freedom to engage in matters that are not monetary policy, and that’s what I want to do.”

Lagarde will leave her ECB post on Feb. 7 next year, about a month before presidential hopefuls must formally apply to run.