Today, Israelis pay tribute to the victims of the jihadist attack in the assaulted kibbutzim, on the esplanade of the music festival that Hamas turned into an orgy of blood, and in the central family ceremony in Tel Aviv. Between tears and memories, several questions remain three years later: "How was it possible? Could it be avoided?"
Questions that stand out in the absence of a state investigative commission and the avalanche of information about the alerts that the security agencies and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received months, weeks and even days before the deadliest attack in the history of Israel with 1,200 dead and 251 kidnapped in a few hours.
Beyond their political consequences 20 days before the elections (not decisive at the moment given the entrenchment of positions for or against Netanyahu), they are important questions for the families of the 2,347 dead on various fronts since the day that surprised the army and the Shabak security service. Their respective bosses, Herzi Halevi and Ronen Bar, resigned in 2025 after assuming responsibility. The Likud leader, who did not take office, has managed to exhaust the term he hopes to renew on October 27. In a country still in trauma and under international criticism, the polarizing electoral campaign makes it difficult to calmly debate whether Netanyahu received warnings, whether they were concrete, and whether he took action.
Out of the ordinary
Days after the attack, Yediot Aharonot journalist Smadar Peri revealed that Egyptian Intelligence Chief Abbas Kamel sent a message to the prime minister's office in Jerusalem warning of the possibility of "something out of the ordinary" against Israel from Gaza. According to his source in Cairo, he was told in Israel that the army was focused on Palestinian attacks in the West Bank. "The border with the Gaza Strip is under control," they responded. Three years later, The Atlantic adds that Kamel held a 67-minute meeting with senior Israeli officials at Ben Gurion Airport, near Tel Aviv, in which he warned of a possible attack. After recommending economic concessions to Hamas, he noted that otherwise "Gaza is going to explode in their faces." Precisely that day, September 26, the 50th anniversary ceremony of the war that began with the surprise attack by Egypt and Syria took place. "As a central lesson of the Kippur war, we do not underestimate any threat," Netanyahu proclaimed. On the other hand, he has been criticized precisely for encouraging Qatar's economic aid, since 2018, to the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip to avoid a crisis and maintain calm. The money reached the population but also the armed wing of Yahia Sinwar's group.
In September, the United Arab Emirates sent a message to Shabak about possible action by Hamas. Subsequently, and as revealed in Haaretz by journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval, Emirati President Mohamed Bin Zayed telephoned Netanyahu warning him that Sinwar was preparing a large-scale attack that could ignite the entire region, although without specifying a place and date. The warning, a week and a half before 7-O, came from Sinwar's message to the Palestinian Sufian Abu Zaida. "Tell the Israelis that, if there is no progress, to wait for a Zilzal (earthquake)," he told him, referring to the negotiations on the exchange of Palestinian prisoners for two Israeli citizens with mental problems who entered Gaza and the bodies of two soldiers. According to the information, Netanyahu did not notify the security chiefs. The premier denies the conversation.
Sinwar ordered the invasion knowing it would trigger a devastating offensive in the Gaza Strip. To the point that he contemplated that "he could even use a nuclear bomb," according to a document in his handwriting about the attack plans in Israel.
Israeli security agencies had warned of the increased likelihood of an attack taking advantage of what was perceived to be "unprecedented internal weakness." It was the time of greatest unrest in Israel with mass protests against the Government's initiative to reduce the power of the judiciary. This situation aggravated tensions between the new Netanyahu government and security chiefs. Their confrontation continued after 7-O, leading the leader's entourage to fuel conspiracy theories.
Dangers
On March 19, 2023, a Military Intelligence officer (Aman) warned Netanyahu by letter that "the probability of a war in the next year is great." Six days later, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant publicly called for a stop to the controversial judicial reform (also highly contested among sectors of reservists) alleging that "the danger is clear, immediate and palpable for the security of the State."
Between April and July 2023, three confidential Intelligence documents indicated that Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah detected "the opportunity for a perfect storm."
"The estimate in Amman is that the danger of war has increased. What can you tell us about this?" Netanyahu was asked on April 13, 2023 on Channel 14. "I think there is an exaggeration in that, but we always prepare for this possibility. Our enemies understand that it is not a good idea to start a war with Israel."
Three months before 7-O, Bar gave Netanyahu "a war warning." "We don't know the day or the hour when it will explode," he clarified. In a meeting with the security leadership on October 1, Netanyahu said that military action against Hamas in Gaza could jeopardize what he saw as close to normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu denies that Bar warned him of an attack from Gaza and blames him for the failure for not taking the necessary measures despite signals received in the early morning such as the activation of dozens of Israeli SIM cards in the Palestinian enclave.
On September 26, 2023, leaders of the towns near the Gaza Strip, quoted by Channel 12, denounced Hamas' freedom of action: "The terrorists feel on the border as if they were on the seafront. This will end in a tragedy."
