Polls opened on Saturday in Latvia's parliamentary election shaped by concerns over neighbouring Russia and the cost of living crisis. The Baltic state is a key pillar of NATO's eastern defensive flank, and experts say there is widespread support for supporting Ukraine in the war with Russia.
"The stance towards Russia is the main reason for Latvians' Western, NATO and European anchoring," a Western diplomat in Riga , adding that it would be hard to imagine major political changes.
Polls predict the centre-right United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, will emerge the largest party in parliament in Saturday's vote.
But his centre-right coalition, which also brings together the centrist New Unity, nationalist National Alliance and the Union of Greens and Farmers, is expected to emerge weakened from the election.
Partial results are expected on Saturday evening, with preliminary official results due on Sunday.
The current governing coalition is made up of United List, New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and the National Alliance. Polls suggest the bloc is unlikely to retain power in its current form after the vote.
Security at the top of voters' minds
Security is at the top of voters' minds in a country bordering Russia which was annexed and ruled by Moscow for much of the 20th century.
According to Roberts Kits, an analyst at the Latvian think tank LaSER, "defence and security will be the priority". Apart from a few dissenting voices, he said, there is broad consensus on maintaining military spending at nearly five percent of GDP and on supporting Ukraine.
But the economy is also a major concern for voters.
Latvia is the least affluent of the three Baltic States in terms of living standards, despite catching up since joining the EU in 2004.
Growth is sluggish, with voters pointing to the cost of living, the state of the healthcare system and the difficulties of public finances. Complicating this are major regional disparities.
Around Riga, GDP per capita reached 101 percent of the European average in 2024, according to a Brussels report.
But in other regions this figure does not exceed 50 percent.
The situation is particularly tense in the eastern region of Latgale, home to a large majority of Russian speakers and suffering from significant depopulation.
"The most important thing is the lack of young people, the lack of good jobs," Aigars Soikants, 30, a resident of Daugavpils, the country's second-largest city, tells AFP.
"There isn't enough work (…) People are leaving," he says of the city, where 90 percent of the population is Russian-speaking.
He says he plans to vote for "a centrist or right-wing party, which acts in the interest of the country".
- Rise of populists -
As elsewhere in Europe, economic concerns have given a boost to populist parties in the run-up to the election.
The Sovereign Power (Suverena vara, SV) party, critical of aid to Ukraine and increased military spending, is polling at nine percent -- and could reach second place in Parliament.
Considered pro-Russian by its critics, the party, led by Julija Stepanenko, emphasises Latvia's economic difficulties.
But the party is isolated politically and barring a huge upset has no chance of entering a future governing coalition.
Carefully avoiding the word "Ukraine", Vjaceslavs Stepanenko, the head of SV's local list in Latgale and husband of the party’s chairwoman, advocates "stopping all aid to any foreign state".
"We are the ones who need help, not the other way around," he tells AFP.
Another populist party, Latvia First (LPV), is also at nine percent, and its businessman leader Ainars Slesers is regularly compared to US President Donald Trump.
The party is winning support with a conservative message and promises of economic revival, and unlike SV, it could become an indispensable partner in coalition talks.
"The big question is whether the United List will cooperate with Slesers' party," said political analyst Sigita Struberga.
- Russian-speaking vote -
Long rallied behind the "Harmony" party, Russian-speakers, who make up about 35 percent of Latvia's population, no longer vote as a unified bloc.
Harmony, which won several parliamentary elections without ever entering government, disappeared from parliament in 2022 and has very little chance of returning.
"We should not look at Russian-speaking voters as a single bloc with a uniform electoral behaviour," analyst Kits said.
While identity issues have not disappeared, a growing part of this electorate now votes according to economic and social criteria.
"I'm going to vote for Slesers' party," Valentin Trofimov, a 62-year-old watch repairman from Daugavpils, told AFP.
In his view, the country "lacks money for everything," including transport, education and medicine.
"Wages are too low," he said.
