Global commitments to limit global warming remain largely insufficient and place the world on a warming trajectory of 2.6°C over the century, warns the UN on Wednesday October 21. The world is "dangerously far from the mark" and "can no longer avoid exceeding the limit of 1.5°C", the most ambitious objective of the 2015 Paris agreement, declared Antonio Guterres, the Secretary-General of the UN, at the launch of the annual report of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) on the gap between emissions and climate objectives.
According to the report, even if nations honor their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures would be 2.6°C higher than pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Projections are darker than those for 2025 – warming of 2.3°C to 2.5°C – notably due to the withdrawal of the United States, the world's second largest polluter, from the Paris agreement and the revision of historical emissions estimates. Among the six largest emitters, preliminary data for 2025 shows rising emissions in the United States, Indonesia and China, and falling in India, Russia and the European Union.
The possibility of keeping warming below 1.5°C “has disappeared”
Based on current policies alone, without taking into account commitments to do better, global warming could even reach 2.8°C by 2100, double its current level, while the world is already experiencing a number of extreme climatic phenomena like those which hit Europe during the summer of 2026.
Greenhouse gas emissions, linked to the combustion of coal, oil and gas, remain "at record levels" in 2025. And national climate plans and current policies are "dangerously insufficient", but "we have the necessary tools to change course and move away from the precipice", believes the UN official. “The consequences are already devastating”, but that “does not mean that we should give up”, underlines Antonio Guterres, three weeks before the 31st UN climate conference in Turkey.
The possibility of keeping warming below 1.5°C "has disappeared", says the report, after "decades of insufficient climate action", notably from the rich countries of the G20, responsible for three quarters of emissions. The report nevertheless envisages a more favorable scenario, in which warming would peak between 1.7°C and 1.8°C before falling back below 1.5°C by 2100. To achieve this, global emissions would have to decrease by 18% by 2030, by 45% by 2035 and by 69% by 2040, compared to 2025. By comparison, the achievement current climate commitments will only lead to a drop of 5 to 8% by 2030 and 11 to 15% by 2035, according to the UN.
The disengagement of the United States estimated at +0.1°C of warming
By withdrawing from the Paris agreement and abandoning any objective of achieving carbon neutrality, the United States of President Donald Trump will alone be responsible, by the end of the century, "for an increase [in the global average temperature] of around 0.1°C, assuming that the country will follow the trajectory corresponding to the policies pursued by the current administration", explained one of the scientists who contributed to this publication, Takeshi Kuramoshi, during a presentation at the press. This 2026 edition "confirms a trend that was already perceptible in last year's report, which reported a gap of around one gigatonne [of greenhouse gas emissions] by 2030, compared to the scenario based on the policies of the Biden era".
Among the five main emitters of greenhouse gases, the United States is the only country showing a marked increase in these emissions between 2024 and 2025, where the other giants (such as China, the European Union, India, Russia and Indonesia) have shown relatively stable emissions. The political decisions of the United States on climate play a significant role in the ability or otherwise of the international community to limit a global rise in temperatures with disastrous human and economic consequences.
“We are already seeing the effects [of climate change] in every country around the world, including the United States, and this trend will continue,” commented the executive director of the United Nations Environment Program, Inger Andersen. “Therefore, seeking to limit emissions will help mitigate these impacts.” Thus, ensuring that the threshold of 1.5°C is exceeded is “as low and as brief as possible” is a “very, very intelligent” choice for everyone, she continued.
