Electoral law, Vannacci's game with the new rules

General Roberto Vannacci's party, with the new electoral law, can officially join the ranks of the "draw" supporters at the moment. Futuro Nazionale (at 7-8% based on the latest polls) seems destined to run alone in next year's political elections if Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's "vetoes" do not fall. But if no coalition reaches the 42% threshold to trigger the seat premium, it could raise the stakes and dictate the conditions to provide the center-right with the parliamentarians needed to obtain a majority in Parliament and govern. «We are already decisive today for the victory of the centre-right, with the draw we will be even more so» explains the FnV deputy Rossano Sasso, who considers the 1,500 signatures to be collected in each of the multi-member constituencies (49 in the Chamber and 26 in the Senate) to be able to present the lists in the next elections a mere formality (the threshold has been raised to at least 6 thousand signatures for those who, unlike Futuro Nazionale, do not have a member in the mixed group).

The Stabilicum or Melonellum, definitively approved by the Chamber with the "futurists" voting against, in fact provides for a double-sided system, so to speak (the copyright belongs to the political scientist Roberto D'Alimonte, who first wrote about it in the Sole 24 Ore): the majority bonus starts at 42% of the votes, but if no coalition reaches the fateful threshold, the system becomes pure proportional, First Republic style. Always excluding the possible findings of the Council, which could already express its opinion on the constitutionality of the law between January and February.

The role of Futuro Nazionale in the event of a draw

In fact, the position of Vannacci's party appears to be one of the decisive factors of the next legislature. Even from Youtrend's latest simulation, which translated the current balance of power between the political forces into seats, with the new electoral law the center-right could win, gaining an absolute majority in both branches of Parliament, only by including Futuro Nazionale (estimated at 7.8%) in the coalition. Without it, there would be no draw, but the majority would go wide. In fact, the latter would exceed the threshold of 42%.

«According to our latest survey for Porta a Porta, the centre-right without Vannacci is head and shoulders above the centre-left, but at the moment neither of the two current coalitions has the certainty of exceeding the threshold and winning the prize» explains Antonio Noto director of Noto polls, who adds: «The paradox of the new electoral law is that the coalitions, also called upon to indicate the candidate for prime minister, are valid only before the final result, because if none reaches 42%, they can fall apart at the search for a majority in Parliament". And here Futuro Nazionale could come back into play. Provided that the patrol of Vannacciani deputies and senators will be sufficient to ensure a majority in Parliament.