The customs duties imposed by Donald Trump since his return to the White House have not caused the spectacular revival of the automobile industry that he prides himself on, say analysts, who draw a more mixed assessment.
Since the Republican's return to power, General Motors, Toyota, Ford and other manufacturers have certainly announced plans to expand their factories in the United States or partially relocate their production, encouraged in particular by 25% customs duties on imported vehicles. But these gains remain limited and offset by the uncertainty surrounding Washington's trade policy, specialists believe. “It’s a partial victory,” summarizes Stephanie Brinley, analyst at Mobility Global.
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The construction of a new factory
The consequences of this have recently become apparent with tensions between the United States and Canada, which are clouding the prospects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (CUSMA). In July, Washington announced that it did not want to renew the agreement, paving the way for an annual review of the text until it expires in 2036, even if negotiations continue with Mexico and Canada.
A senior Honda official also indicated in August that he was considering the construction of a new factory in North America, while warning that a continuation of the vagueness around CUSMA could call these plans into question. The uncertainties linked to customs duties and Donald Trump's change of heart on electric vehicles have also weakened American automobile equipment manufacturers, who supply parts and technologies to manufacturers and employ some 930,000 people in the United States.
Tyler Harp, economist at the Center for Automotive Research (CAR), thus notes “a significant slowdown” in investments by equipment manufacturers, going from more than 8 billion dollars in the first quarter of 2025 to around 600 million in each of the following two quarters, before partially recovering.
Focus on automation
After declining in 2025, employment in the American automobile industry started to rise again in 2026, reaching nearly 1.8 million employees in September, according to the American Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This level represents almost 1% more than in January 2025, when Donald Trump took office, but remains more than 2% lower than the peak recorded in July 2024 under Joe Biden.
Automotive production remains generally stable. Analysts only anticipate a marked increase by 2030, when the investments announced by General Motors in Michigan, Kansas and Tennessee ($4 billion), as well as Toyota's plan to transfer production of the Tacoma pickup to Texas from Mexico ($3.6 billion), will take effect. According to Mobility Global, US production is expected to remain around 10 million vehicles in 2026, before increasing to around 11.3 million in 2030.
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“There is clearly an increase to come, and it is partly linked to customs duties,” underlines Stephanie Brinley, while recalling that investment decisions in new factories are made over several decades and not on the scale of a presidential mandate. According to MEMA, the American Association of Automotive Suppliers, changes in government trade policy are now the “main risk” for the sector.
Deloitte, for its part, believes that this context of uncertainty over customs duties pushes companies to favor a strategy of “cost control rather than growth”, and to accelerate their investments in automation and robotics.
