Lithuania's Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevicius believes that Russia is willing to test NATO. In the WELT interview he talks about the danger of further escalation, Friedrich Merz's role in Europe and the German brigade in Lithuania.
WORLD: Mr. Prime Minister, there is a lot of talk about Russia potentially intensifying its hybrid attacks on Europe. Some politicians and observers are warning of an escalation on NATO's eastern flank. You downplayed the risk of escalation somewhat, unlike your Polish counterpart Donald Tusk, who warned of an escalation in the coming weeks or months. What should we expect now?
Mindaugas Sinkevicius: We shouldn't just live and tremble by expectations. We should do our work gradually, steadily and calmly. That's what we do in Lithuania. We spend a lot on military and defense. We see hybrid attacks all the time; they have been around for several years. I know that Germany and other countries are now confronted with what is happening. We talked about it for a long time in Lithuania and people said we were a bit crazy or very scared. We were calm and rational. NATO also sees this as a growing problem. Of course we have to tell societies that there is a risk. But as politicians we must manage this risk. We shouldn't just talk about it all the time. Such conversations can harm the economy, affect foreign direct investment and tourism. It has consequences. It is not enough to say “something will happen in the next few months” without saying what, when and how it might look. We should do our homework, increase spending on security and deterrence, take note of the situation, share intelligence, be ready and act when something happens.
WORLD: There have just been parliamentary elections in neighboring Latvia. As you know, the Latvian government resigned in May after Ukrainian drones, apparently thrown off course by Russian interference, entered Latvian airspace. An oil depot was hit. Lithuania is also facing sabotage, GPS jamming and drone intrusions. For you, when does hybrid warfare stop being hybrid and become an escalation to which Europe must find other answers?
Sinkevicius: I think the rest of Europe is coming to the point of recognizing that we cannot ignore what is happening in Leipzig, in Denmark and elsewhere. It's not a question of proximity. There was a time when incidents were limited to the eastern flank, on the borders of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland: incoming drones, instrumentalized migration from Belarus, dug tunnels, weather balloons, various other incidents. Now the rest of Europe sees that it is no longer about distance. We have to deal with it. NATO is trying to address this politically. This is not an easy task: to bring all the Member States together and, as these incidents continue, to actually have a plan on how to respond. There are political declarations and the alliance partners, including Lithuania, are doing their homework. We invest heavily in airspace security. What we need is a concrete plan for how the alliance will respond. I hope we see this plan very soon.
WORLD: We're not just talking about hybrid warfare. There is war in Ukraine. Chancellor Merz was in Kiev on Sunday, under Russian fire, and pledged more than 1.3 billion euros, including air defense, drones and money to repair the power grid. From Vilnius' perspective, what does Ukraine still need now, and how do you assess the situation at the front?
Sinkevicius: The situation is difficult. Like me, Chancellor Merz was in Kyiv and Lutsk a few weeks ago. I saw the situation with my own eyes. The mood during the political talks was not good. Ukrainians understand that winter is coming and their energy sector has been heavily bombed. What the Russians are doing is: They are using ballistic missiles and jet engine drones that are difficult to intercept. They bomb energy infrastructure, bridges, pharmaceutical plants, and a variety of other targets every day. The coming winter will be very difficult. I have great respect for Chancellor Merz for his support for Ukraine. It will be difficult for the Ukrainians to defend against ballistic missiles because on some days they have too few or no appropriate defenses. The energy sector is badly damaged. Lithuania is also involved. We are sending transformers and other equipment to help Ukrainians get through the winter. We have helped, we are helping, and we will continue to help. The core message was: We have helped you a lot, we will continue to do so, and we are doing it now. We are pushing our limits. Every year we dedicate a quarter of one percent of our economic output to supporting Ukraine.
WORLD: In Kiev, Chancellor Merz said that if Moscow is not stopped, the war machine will turn against the rest of Europe. Central and Eastern Europeans, including Lithuanians, have long complained that Germany is not supporting Ukraine strongly enough. Merz strikes a different tone than his predecessor. Has he understood the seriousness of the situation and is he now in line with the countries on NATO's eastern flank?
Sinkevicius: I would say that Chancellor Merz will take the lead on the European side. Lithuania is doing a lot relative to budget and GDP, but Germany has stepped in. Some of this happened quietly, without much media fanfare. What we see is the Chancellor's determination and a full understanding of the situation at the front. You could say we have two fronts. One in the east, where Ukrainians are fighting for their country against Russian aggression. The other is the front of supporters in the West. Lithuania and Germany are included, along with other European nations, and this is not just a European issue. Japan, the United States, Canada and others are involved. In every society we also have internal problems: economic, social, health, education. These sectors also need money. It's sometimes difficult to explain why the priorities are the way they are. In Lithuania there is an understanding that we may have other priorities, but if we are not safe, if we are not free, if we were occupied, there would be no point. We must not hesitate when it comes to defense spending. In the worst case, there would be no need for health care or education because both would be taken away from us.
WORLD: As Prime Minister of Lithuania, you are watching the regime in Moscow more closely than most European governments. Is Putin's system stable enough to sustain this war into next year, or is the greater danger a regime that feels cornered and is therefore more willing to test NATO?
Sinkevicius: The willingness to test NATO is there. Putin's regime is not collapsing. The word I would use is a different one: it decays. It's rotting from the inside. Don't confuse this with weakness. Putin has managed to orient Russia's economy towards war. These people are not interested in the future of their society or the fate of their country. They are very invested in their imperial dreams, at any cost. We are dealing with highly irrational people who have their own view of the world, and such people are difficult to predict. What needs to be done is to prepare, constantly. We should stand together in NATO and the European Union. Lithuania and the brigade on Lithuanian soil are a wonderful example. I believe this will be a success story, with the clear understanding that the brigade coming to Rudninkai, in the district next to Vilnius, will serve not only the security of Lithuania, but also that of Europe and Germany. From this perspective, it is also an investment for Germany. We're doing everything we can to make it a success, and we'll make it happen.
WORLD: The German brigade is taking shape and the Lithuanian side is making rapid progress with the infrastructure. However, Germany is struggling to staff the brigade with volunteers and may have to order deployments - while the brigade is still expected to be fully operational by 2027. Can this date be kept?
Sinkevicius: Yes. I am completely confident that we can do it. I will personally invite you to the ceremony at the end of 2027. It will be a success story for Lithuania and Germany. Construction is on schedule. I think we're even ahead of schedule. Hopefully everything goes smoothly. There are risks and we have to mitigate them on the German and Lithuanian sides, but we are on the right track. I will use my personal political clout to ensure it is completed on time and not a postponed project. It will be great if we finish on time, and I'm pretty sure we will be.
WORLD: At a hearing in the Bundestag, the head of the BND, Martin Jäger, said: "Germany is in danger of being drawn into a violent conflict with Russia. The attempted attack in Leipzig is just one example. No other country currently poses such a direct, comprehensive and concrete threat to Germany." He added that President Putin had passed the point where he could simply stop pressure on Ukraine without endangering his domestic power base. He must demonstrate success in Ukraine that, from the Russian perspective, justifies the immense sacrifices. That puts him under pressure. If we take this seriously: Doesn't that mean that Europe, especially Germany and the countries on the eastern flank, must prepare for a lasting, possibly escalating confrontation with Russia?
Sinkevicius: Yes, you are right. We should do everything we can to help Ukraine, militarily and economically. We understand the situation at the front and in the country very well. I have met my counterpart, the Prime Minister of Ukraine, and I know the state of their budget and economy. He's not good. We must not be war-weary. We are not the ones at war. They are, and they are fighting for the peace of Europe. In the worst case scenario, if Russia succeeds, there is a high probability that it will not end up in Ukraine. Russia would continue. This must not happen. The European community and the free democratic world should work politically, economically and financially to achieve peace. This is what we strive for and we will do our best. We are a small nation. Small nations sometimes speak loudly, and sometimes they don't have many resources. What we can do is speak out loud. In addition to what we are already doing, we will speak loudly for Ukraine.
WORLD: The world is changing, not just in Eastern and East Central Europe. There have been changes in the USA, transatlantic relations are changing. Donald Trump is an irritating president for many Europeans. Is the USA still a security policy partner under Donald Trump?
Sinkevicius: From a Lithuanian perspective, we will do everything we can to maintain a close relationship with the United States. We don't take it personally. We don't just look at who is in government or who leads it. The relationship should not depend on who is in office. Lithuania and the United States have long been good partners, strategic partners, and I will do my best to keep it that way. Governments change in the US and Lithuania, but a good relationship should remain - or at least Lithuania will strive for it. On the map of Europe, the partner closest to us is Germany. Germany is priority number one: our strategic partner, militarily, in trade and economically. We sometimes only focus on defense, military and security. There is also economic cooperation in the interests of both countries. I am happy to see our companies working together and growing. There's plenty of room for more. The situation between Lithuania and Germany is good, not only from a security perspective, but also economically, and there is always room for improvement. I look forward to any kind of economic cooperation.
