Donald Trump faces midterm elections that could be decisive for what remains of his power, but in the European Union they do not see that they are going to change the relationship on both sides of the Atlantic too much, no matter what happens. In Brussels they assume that a good result would reaffirm the White House's theses and a bad result would perhaps make the president more unpredictable, as diplomatic sources from several member states explain to 20minutes.
In the community sphere it is not clear what could happen: the Republicans are on the verge, according to polls, of losing control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, which would turn Trump into what is known as a "lame duck", that is, a president who barely has room for maneuver because his party does not dominate either House. This scenario, sources warn, could cause the US president to veto any movement and greatly toughen some of his policies, such as trade.
"Losing both chambers or even one would change everything. The appointments of the Supreme Court, the legislation, the budget... everything goes through both chambers, and without them, there is no longer that blank check that facilitates the approval of many initiatives," Adam Dubin, professor at the Universidad Pontificia Comillas, explained to this medium. In the EU, contrary to what it may seem, they do not believe that a Trump with his hands tied is going to pivot too much in his approaches.
If, contrary to the polls, the Republicans win and maintain control of the Chambers, Trump would see his drift reaffirmed, they assume in Brussels. For example, the president would understand that his offensive against Iran is validated, which has also intensified in recent hours, just before going to the polls. Trump is now at his lowest approval level since returning to the White House, and in part that is due to the rising cost of living and the rise in fuel prices, especially important for rural areas. In fact, the conflict in the Middle East is one of the most unpopular things at the citizen level.
European countries understand that the war will only stop when the United States decides, and they have accepted the new scenario... even if that implies, for example, a maneuver by Washington together with Russia to stop the rise in energy prices: in Brussels the pact has been read like this. Trump called Putin because he considered that an oil agreement with Moscow would serve to alleviate the crisis and boost him ahead of the midterm elections. It does not seem, however, that the polls have given it that grace and for Europe the US-Russia clamp against Ukraine is increasingly clear. The conclusion is that if he wins, many voices say, his "iron fist" policy would be reaffirmed.
Defeat would change things little, if anything it would make him more unpredictable. Sources consider that when the president of the United States is cornered, he has two options: commercial coercion or expansionist desires. And they give two examples: he regained power with a massive increase in tariffs and a trade war that led the EU to sign a bad agreement at Turnberry two summers ago; That pact remains up in the air, with the Union forced to approve safeguards because it does not trust Trump. That weapon remains in the hands of the United States in case the president wants to tighten the screws, they insist.
The greater unpredictability in the event of losing can also be seen, they say, in situations like the one that has already been experienced with Greenland: an expansionist desire to control more and more areas of interest, whether in the Arctic or in Latin America. No one in Brussels is ruling out a movement on Cuba to regain strength, something similar to what happened with Venezuela. Of course, sources in this sense remember that this impulse occurred only among his followers: the capture of Nicolás Maduro represented a political boost for Donald Trump among his supporters, but it did not translate into a clear and sustained increase in his popularity among Americans as a whole. For example, polls from January 2026 - a month after the military operation - showed considerable support for the operation among Republicans (74%), compared to 13% of Democrats and 34% of independents.
Meanwhile, the EU seeks to have its own space, and does so by looking towards two partners that it considers key to the drift of the United States: Canada and the United Kingdom. With the former, the new preferred partner on the other side of the Atlantic, as Ursula von der Leyen herself has recognized, it was reaffirmed last weekend that "an association at the highest level" is wanted. Canada will not be a member of the EU, but the parties want to form what they have defined as "the alliance of the future"; a plan that, although it is not said, seeks to stand up to Donald Trump. At the same time, London is seeking to return to the Union fold... even if it is without full membership (something that is also up in the air). For now, a summit is already scheduled for next November 20 to open this new era of good strategic relations.
