
AI-generated summary
The Sunni-Shia divide stems from differing views on who is qualified to lead the Muslim community after the death of the Islamic prophet Muhammad in 632 AD. Sunnis believe that leaders should be elected by the Muslim community, while Shias believe that leadership should continue through the family line of the Prophet Muhammad. With the development of history, the two sides gradually formed different religious traditions and political identities, becoming the two most important sects in the Islamic world today. Saudi Arabia is mainly Sunni, and the two Islamic holy cities of Mecca and Medina are also located in the territory; Iran has a mainly Shia population and is an important core of Shia power.
Islam is one of the three major religions in the world. (French information photo)
Group of Sunni Muslim Countries' Mecca Joint Defense Agreement
[Financial Channel/Comprehensive Report] In August 2026, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed the "Mecca Joint Defense Agreement" in Mecca. Agreement), this major diplomatic alliance has attracted global attention, because the three countries are all dominated by Sunni Muslims. The agreement also stipulates that if any of the countries suffers an armed attack, it will be regarded as an attack on the three countries and a collective defense mechanism will be established. Therefore, it is also regarded by the outside world as having a strong collective defense flavor of Sunni countries.
To understand this conflict in the Middle East, we must first understand what "Islam" is. Islam is one of the three major religions in the world, and its followers are called Muslims. The two largest sects of Islam are Sunni and Shia.
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Saudi Arabia means the desert of happiness in Arabic and is also the birthplace of Islam. In the 7th century AD, the successors of Muhammad, the founder of Islam, established the Arab Empire. At its peak, its territory even spanned Europe, Asia, and Africa.
The differences between Sunnis and Shiites stem from different views on "who is qualified to lead the Muslim community" after the death of the Islamic prophet Muhammad in 632 AD. Sunnis believe that leaders should be elected by the Muslim community, while Shias believe that leadership should continue through the family line of the Prophet Muhammad.
With the development of history, the two sides gradually formed different religious traditions and political identities, becoming the two most important sects in the Islamic world today.
Shiaism has Iran as its core. (Ouxin file photo)
Saudi Arabia and Iran have been in sharp conflict for more than 20 years
At present, the majority of the world's Muslim population is Sunni, while Shia has Iran as its important core and has important influence in Iraq, Lebanon and other Middle East regions. However, Sunnis and Shias are not simply two political camps. The foreign relations and security policies of many countries are also affected by factors such as national interests, regional power competition, energy and geopolitics.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have long been important powers in the Middle East, and their competition has further intertwined sectarian differences with regional political struggles. Saudi Arabia is dominated by Sunnis, and the two Islamic holy cities of Mecca and Medina are also located in the territory, which has a special status in the Islamic world; Iran has a predominantly Shia population and is an important core of Shia power.
After the Islamic Revolution broke out in Iran in 1979 and overthrew the original monarchy, competition between the two countries further intensified. Iran's establishment of a new political system with Islamic political thought as its core also makes Saudi Arabia face challenges from Iran's political and religious influence.
In the past 20 years or so, a series of major events in the Middle East have made the confrontation between the two countries more acute. After the United States invaded Iraq in 2003 and overthrew Saddam Hussein's regime, Iraq's original political order was reshaped, which also allowed Iran's political and security influence in Iraq to gradually expand.
In 2011, the "Arab Spring" swept across the Middle East and North Africa, and many countries fell into political turmoil. Saudi Arabia and Iran also expanded their influence in the region, especially in places such as Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen.
Although the two countries have not directly gone to full-scale war, they have competed for regional influence through their allies and supported armed forces. This long-term geopolitical competition is often described as the Middle East version of the "Cold War" by outsiders.
Currently, the majority of the world's Muslim population is Sunni. (French information photo)
Iran-backed Yemeni rebels attack Saudi Arabia
Judging from the basic geographical pattern of the Middle East, Iran is a country with a majority Shia population and important regional influence. Its influence also extends to different regions in the Middle East through allies or supported armed forces such as Iraq, Lebanon's Hezbollah, and the Yemeni Houthis. Saudi Arabia has long been regarded as an important force in the Sunni world.
Now, against this historical background, the war between the United States, Israel and Iran has further intertwined the sectarian differences and geopolitical contradictions that originally existed in the Middle East. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran. The conflict continued to rage, and Iran and its allies also launched retaliatory actions, causing the war to gradually spill over from Iran to the entire Persian Gulf region.
The war is no longer limited to the United States and Iran. Iran has launched attacks on relevant targets in Israel and the United States in the region, and the Yemeni Houthi armed forces supported by Iran have also continued to launch attacks on Saudi Arabia, further increasing the security risks of Gulf countries. On September 24, Saudi Arabia intercepted six ballistic missiles launched by the Houthi armed forces, targeting Taif in southern Saudi Arabia and Yanbu along the Red Sea coast.
At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz has also become the key to this war affecting the global energy market. This important waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is an important node for global energy transportation. After the war escalated, shipping was disrupted, and Gulf oil-producing countries also began to look for alternative transportation routes. Although some shipping activities have gradually resumed recently, the Strait of Hormuz is still an important issue in US-Iran negotiations and regional security.
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) pointed out that sectarian differences are indeed an important aspect in understanding the situation in the Middle East, but political, economic and geostrategic interests also play a key role; Iran and Saudi Arabia have long competed for regional influence, further politicizing sectarian differences.
It was also at a time when the conflict between the United States and Iran continued to rage and security risks in the Gulf increased that Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the "Mecca Joint Defense Agreement" in August to strengthen each other's military cooperation and collective defense mechanisms. The core provisions of the agreement establish a mechanism similar to Article 5 of NATO, which stipulates that an armed attack on any one of the three countries will be regarded as an attack on all three countries.
It is worth noting that this agreement does not amount to a closed "Sunni military alliance." In September, Turkish Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus said that the agreement may be expanded to more Muslim countries in the future, including Iran, and emphasized that the agreement is not targeted at any specific country. The Turkish Parliament is expected to handle the relevant approval procedures as soon as October.
The United States and Iran are still struggling to find a way to end the war. (Reuters photo)
Sunni-Shia differences come to the fore amid geopolitical tensions
The analysis pointed out that the differences between Sunnis and Shia originally originated from the leadership and succession issues after Muhammad's death. With the development of history, the two sects gradually formed their own legal traditions, theological systems and religious rituals over hundreds of years.
Although the two sects share a common basis in belief in God, recognition of Muhammad as the prophet, and adherence to the basic beliefs of Islam, there are still important doctrinal differences on issues such as the source of religious authority, the status of leaders, and religious interpretation.
Today, as the conflict between the United States and Iran continues to rage, these long-standing geopolitical contradictions have once again surfaced. Sectarian differences are only one part of the equation, and are also intertwined with multiple factors such as national security, competition for regional power, energy transportation, and the U.S. military layout in the Middle East.
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AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The Turkish Parliament will handle the ratification process of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement in October
Very likely · Within weeks
The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement may be expanded to more Muslim countries in the future, including even Iran
Possible · Within months

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Kurt Campbell is a veteran US diplomat and strategist who has shaped Washington's approach to China and the Indo-Pacific for over a decade, serving as White House Indo-Pacific coordinator (2021-2024), deputy secretary of state (2024-2025), and assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs (2009-2013), and is known as the Biden administration's 'Asia tsar' for his role in developing the Quad and the 'small yard, high fence' technology strategy.