Lula and Bolsonaro advance to Brazil presidential runoff as cost of living, corruption dominate campaign

Voters line up at a polling station during general elections in Brasilia, Brasilia (AP Photo)

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, an ally of US President Donald Trump and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, will face each other in a runoff election on October 25 after neither secured the majority needed to win the presidency in the first round. Brazil's electoral authority said the 80-year-old Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, and 45-year-old Bolsonaro advanced after finishing first and second in Sunday's vote. With more than 97% of ballots counted, Bolsonaro had 47.45% of valid votes, while Lula had 44.66%, according to Reuters. The electoral court in Brasilia earlier put Bolsonaro at just over 55.8 million votes and Lula at nearly 53.2 million. Both candidates were expected to address supporters.

Cost of living, corruption and security dominate campaign

The two candidates will now have three weeks to appeal to voters who backed other candidates in the first round. The election campaign has focused on concerns over the rising cost of living, corruption and insecurity. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, who secured moderate support in Sunday's election, have previously said they would not endorse either candidate in the runoff, according to AP. Lula is expected to highlight his social policies and contrast them with Bolsonaro's political and legal background. His approval ratings have fallen during his third term, but he continues to retain support among voters who credit his social policies with improving the lives of millions of Brazilians, news agency AP reported. The incumbent also faces criticism over the country's affordability crisis and a corruption scandal involving the same Supreme Court justice who led the investigation into Jair Bolsonaro. Flavio Bolsonaro has campaigned on affordability and is expected to link Lula to corruption scandals. He has also promised tougher action against Brazilian criminal groups and called for better economic deals with the Trump administration, including in the rare-minerals sector. “Brazil needs change. Brazil can’t stand so much suffering,” Bolsonaro told reporters at a voting centre in Rio de Janeiro. He has also campaigned on securing the release of his father and bringing him back into politics.

Lula and Bolsonaro offer contrasting foreign policy positions

The runoff will also take place against a backdrop of tensions between Brazil and the Trump administration. Lula has accused the US administration of attempting to influence Brazil's election in Bolsonaro's favour through measures including tariffs, the revocation of the visa of Brazil's ambassador to Washington and sanctions against government officials and a Supreme Court justice. A Bolsonaro victory would increase US influence in Latin America, while a Lula victory would see Brazil maintain distance from Washington and continue deepening its relationship with China,. Trump allies have performed strongly in recent elections in Argentina, Colombia, Honduras and Peru.

Voters divided over Bolsonaro and Lula

Both candidates face significant opposition among sections of the electorate. Roughly half of Brazil's population disapproves of the Bolsonaro family, while roughly half disapproves of Lula's Workers Party, according to multiple polls. Four years ago, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro by about 2.1 million votes. In Rio de Janeiro, Lula supporter and history professor Alvaro Senra, 65, said he was disappointed by the first-round result but believed Lula could still win. “I’m feeling calm but very sad with the result,” Senra said. “I think this is the result of conservatives working under the radar, including by neo-Pentecostal churches. But I think Lula can still win.” Maria Ribeiro, a 50-year-old cellphone vendor from Brasilia, said she voted for Flavio Bolsonaro because she wanted freedom to express her evangelical faith. “I voted for his father, and I don’t regret it,” she said. Lorena Zschaber, a 40-year-old photographer who watched the results at an LGBTQ+-friendly bar in Rio, said Bolsonaro's connection to his father concerned her. “I'm an LGBTQ+ woman, I can’t think of anything worse happening than Flávio Bolsonaro being elected,” she said. Rosângela Resende da Rocha, 69, said she supported Lula's social policies and his stance towards Trump. “That crazy guy wants to come in here to buy our country, so that our country will be like it is over there,” she said. “He won’t succeed if Lula wins.”

Brazil's electronic voting system faces no major fraud finding

Brazil's electronic voting system has not recorded any significant fraud since its adoption in the 1990s. The Organisation of American States' electoral observation mission said on Sunday that “the voting has been going smoothly and under adequate safety conditions”. Electoral authorities have said the electronic votes are secure and verifiable. “We are almost three hours away from the end of the voting and everything is proceeding normally and with the greatest possible transparency,” Superior Electoral Court president Kassio Nunes Marques said on Sunday afternoon. He added that there was “no concrete indication of international interference.” The next presidential term begins on January 5, 2027. The winner will lead Latin America's largest economy and a country with a population of about 214 million.

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